The hottest seats in college football are a little less crowded this year, but that only sharpens the focus on the coaches sitting closest to the edge. Last season offered reminders that a rough preseason label doesn’t always stick - Sonny Cumbie went from the single hottest seat in the country to eight wins at Louisiana Tech, while Brent Venables turned things around enough to take Oklahoma to the College Football Playoff. But the other side of that coin is brutal: Trent Dilfer, Hugh Freeze, Mike Gundy, Sam Pittman and Brent Pry were all gone by season’s end.
So with the 2026 group trimmed down, the two questions stand out clearly: who gets fired first, and who manages to work his way off the list?
Mike Norvell looks like the answer to the first one.
Florida State probably should have moved on from Norvell last December after a 5-7 finish followed the 2-10 collapse the year before. Instead, the Seminoles kept him around, and the math now matters almost as much as the record.
He was only two seasons into the extension Florida State gave him after the 2023 run, and firing him after 2025 would have cost roughly $58.4 million. That number drops to an estimated $45.6 million once this season ends.
The on-field outlook doesn’t make the situation any easier. FanDuel Sportsbook has Florida State at 6.5 wins, with the juice on the under.
A rough start is easy to picture, with losses to SMU on Labor Day and at Alabama after a bye potentially putting the Seminoles at 1-2. October is even less forgiving, with Virginia, Louisville, Miami and Clemson lined up in succession.
Florida State tried to rebuild again through the portal, adding more than 20 newcomers, but this doesn’t look like a roster built to announce a clean turnaround. The offense brings back only two starters, and quarterback Ashton Daniels arrives after two previous stops without looking like the kind of answer that can quickly flip the program’s direction. The Seminoles are banking on a pile of transfers to come together fast against the ACC’s toughest schedule.
Norvell is also taking back play-calling duties after turning them over to Gus Malzahn last season. That matters because he was the one steering Florida State’s explosive offense during the 2022 and 2023 surge. Now, it reads like a move made with urgency, not comfort.
The leash, in other words, is short. Long enough to get through the buyout realities, maybe, but probably not long enough to survive a drawn-out stumble. Norvell probably won’t make it to November.
Even so, he was bullish in May at ACC spring meetings, saying he expects 2026 to be "the best year of my life," and adding that the last two seasons in Tallahassee have made him a better coach. That’s one way to frame it. Another is that if Florida State falters again, the best year of his life could still be the one when the buyout arrives.
At the other end of the list, Lincoln Riley feels like the coach most likely to climb off the hot seat.
That’s a call I made back in February, when I picked USC to get back to the College Football Playoff in Year 5 under Riley. Nothing since then has changed my mind.
Among the 10 voters on our panel, only two refused to give Riley a 4 - the “start improving now” grade - and I was one of the holdouts. Maybe last season’s progress is coloring the picture, but I don’t see the Trojans backing up.
The schedule is no picnic. USC has to deal with Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana in what looks like as difficult a Big Ten slate as anyone will face.
FanDuel has the Trojans at 8.5 wins, with the under carrying the juice. Still, USC spent much of last season knocking on the door and finished 7-2 in Big Ten play.
The roster gives Riley a real chance to push through. USC leads the FBS with 15 returning starters and ranks 10th nationally in returning snaps.
Jayden Maiava is entering his second season as the full-time starter and has some under-the-radar Heisman Trophy buzz. On top of that, the Trojans landed the No. 1 overall recruiting class, and several of those newcomers look ready to help right away.
The defense remains the biggest question, especially against the league’s top teams, but bringing in Gary Patterson should help steady a unit that has looked lost too often. With the continuity, the quarterback, the recruiting haul and Patterson’s presence, Riley has a path to move off this list next year.
In Other News...
Florida State Just Made A Quarterback Decision Fans Will Debate
Ashton Daniels has spent enough time in college football to know how quickly a quarterback can be judged, and now he gets the biggest stage of his career at Florida State. The transfer from Stanford and Auburn arrives with plenty of experience and a mixed rsum, but also with the kind of edge that comes from hearing doubt follow him around. He has leaned into that skepticism before, and the Seminoles are betting his path has prepared him for the pressure that comes with running a program that expects to win.
Daniels also walks into a roster that looks very different from the one fans remember, with more than half the team new and only two returning offensive starters. Even so, he has sounded encouraged by the culture he found and by the talent around him, especially a group that is still sorting out its identity. For Daniels, the challenge is bigger than simply settling in at quarterback. It is about proving he can meet Florida States standard while helping a new-look offense come together quickly. [Read more 🡒]
The Job Security Bar For Mike Norvell Just Got Very Real
Mike Norvell is heading into his seventh season in Tallahassee with the kind of pressure that tends to follow a coach after back-to-back losing years. Florida States 13-0 regular season in 2023 still stands as the high-water mark of the Norvell era, but the Seminoles were left out of the College Football Playoff after Jordan Travis went down, then dropped the Orange Bowl, and the program has spent the time since trying to regain its footing.
The latest reminder of how sharp the spotlight has become came from CBS Sports analyst Danny Kanell, who put a clear standard on Norvells future. Florida State has a demanding 2026 slate ahead, and the conversation around the season is no longer just about improvement or momentum, but about how many wins it will take before the school feels comfortable keeping the staff in place for another year. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Finally Honors One Of The Most Beloved Voices Ever
For more than four decades, Gene Deckerhoff was part of the soundtrack at Florida State, calling football and mens basketball through some of the programs biggest moments and becoming one of the most familiar voices in Seminoles history. The university has now chosen to recognize that run in a way that fits the setting, with head coach Mike Norvell delivering the news to Deckerhoff during a ceremony and praising what he meant to the program.
Deckerhoff retired from Florida State broadcasts after the 2022 spring game, but he is not done behind a microphone just yet. He will continue calling Tampa Bay Buccaneers games in what he says will be his final season there, while FSU makes room for his name in the stadium where so many of his calls lived. [Read more 🡒]