Florida State’s 1-1 start has left plenty to sort out, and the numbers are doing a lot of the talking for Mike Norvell’s team.
The Seminoles head into their first bye week with a pivotal trip to No. 12 Alabama on Sept. 19 looming, and the early returns have not been clean. FSU has been shaky on defense, overly dependent on the run on offense, and unable to turn close-game moments into wins.
That was on display most clearly in the 27-24 loss to No. 17 SMU.
According to OptaStats, it was a strange one - the kind of result that hasn’t shown up in at least 30 years. Florida State outrushed the Mustangs, had fewer penalties, held the ball longer, made more field goals and won the turnover battle.
None of it was enough.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings still carved up the Seminoles for 430 passing yards and three touchdowns, including a 79-yard strike. But Jennings also threw two interceptions, and SMU gave Florida State extra chances with a first-half fumble and a muffed punt in the third quarter.
FSU couldn’t cash in.
Three of the four drives after turnovers ended in punts, and two of those possessions immediately after takeaways went three-and-out. The Seminoles’ only points off a turnover came in the third quarter.
After Nehemiah Chandler picked off Jennings, FSU punted after a five-play drive. Then SMU muffed that punt and Florida State recovered.
The Seminoles settled for a field goal on the short field, but an offside penalty on the kick kept the drive alive, and Ousmane Kromah finished it off with a 6-yard touchdown run five plays later to tie the game at 17.
Even with that opening, Florida State never fully grabbed control.
The bigger picture isn’t helping either. Since 2024, the Seminoles are 1-8 in one-score games, with the lone win coming against Cal in 2024 despite allowing more than 400 yards of total offense in a 14-9 victory.
On defense, the third-down numbers are especially ugly. FSU has given up 904 yards in two games, an average of 452 per game, and 364 of those yards have come on third-down plays. Opponents are 18-of-31 on third down, a 58% success rate, and four of the five touchdowns allowed this season have come on third down.
The issue shows up in the way the Seminoles are playing coverage. They’re bringing pressure, but the secondary is sitting deep, sometimes 6-8 yards off receivers, which has opened the door for short completions to turn into bigger gains when tackles are missed or broken.
That was part of what fueled SMU’s 79-yard touchdown. Jennings took a hit while throwing, but Yannick Smith caught a 6-yard route over the middle and turned it into a score after slipping two tacklers.
The offense has its own third-down problem, and it’s making the defense’s struggles feel even heavier. Florida State went 2-of-15 on third down against SMU and is just 10-of-29, or 34%, on the season.
The attack has leaned hard on the run, and while the Seminoles are averaging 208 rushing yards per game, it’s not always a clean operation. Opposing defenses are loading the box and daring FSU to beat them another way. Kromah has been the bright spot, piling up 231 rushing yards and two touchdowns through two games, but a lot of his production has come from creating on his own rather than running behind a consistently effective line.
That line has had problems in both protection and run blocking, and it has limited the passing game. Ashton Daniels has gone 29-of-50 for 327 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, but he hasn’t looked fully comfortable. He has been hesitant in the pocket at times, missing downfield windows or holding the ball too long before scrambling or taking a sack.
According to Pro Football Focus, Daniels’ average time to throw is 3.57 seconds, which ranks 231st of 242 graded quarterbacks and is among the longest in the country. Some of that depends on scheme, but the numbers also point to a quarterback who is taking too long to let it go. And with 185 of the graded quarterbacks getting the ball out in three seconds or less, the contrast is stark.
For now, Florida State looks stuck in a familiar pattern: run-first, predictable, and vulnerable when the game gets tight. Kromah can pop an explosive run, as he’s already done twice this season, but that alone isn’t a sustainable formula.
Norvell is calling the plays, and the next stretch will demand something more balanced before the Seminoles head to Alabama. The bye week gives them 12 days to clean up the issues that have defined the start of the season.
Florida State football schedule 2026
vs. New Mexico State | 34-17 W
vs. SMU* | 27-24 L
Bye
at Alabama | Sept. 19
vs. Central Arkansas | Sept. 26
vs. Virginia* | Oct. 3
at Louisville* | Oct. 9
at Miami* | Oct. 17
Bye
vs. Clemson* | Oct. 31
at Boston College* | Nov. 7
at Pittsburgh* | Nov. 13
vs. NC State* | Nov. 21
vs. Florida | Nov. 27
In Other News...
FSU Fans Are Confronting One Brutal Mike Norvell Reality
Mike Norvells tenure at Florida State has reached the point where the frustration is no longer just about one bad stretch or one disappointing season. Seven years into the job, the Seminoles are staring at a 39-35 record under his watch, and the recent slide has made the conversation around the program feel heavier than it did even a year ago. What once looked like a long-term build now has fans weighing patience against the reality of how long the skid has lasted.
Money only makes that conversation harder to ignore. Norvells 2024 extension runs through 2031 and includes a modest base salary with supplemental income that rises each year, but the real issue is the buyout, which sits around $46.7 million. That kind of number puts Florida State in a familiar college football bind: even when a program starts asking tough questions about direction, the cost of making a change can be almost as daunting as standing pat. [Read more 🡒]
Mike Norvell's Future Just Became A Tough Florida State Debate
Florida States recent slide has turned Mike Norvells tenure into one of the more complicated discussions in the sport, because this is no longer just about wins and losses. The Seminoles are coming off a 13-1 season, but the stretch since then has been rough, with an 8-18 record overall and a 3-14 mark in ACC play, a downturn that has changed the temperature around the program in a hurry.
The harder part for Florida State is what comes next, because Norvells long-term contract is a major financial commitment. His 8-year, $84 million extension carries a buyout estimated at around $45 million if the school were to move on, which means the universitys decision may hinge as much on the rest of this season as on the frustration already building in the fan base. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Fans Have A Costly Portal Question After Week 1
Florida States Week 1 loss did more than dent the record. It reopened the conversation around a roster that was supposed to look like a major investment, especially with roughly $24 million tied up in NIL funds and a ranking that placed the Seminoles 26th in college football. After the opener, the concerns were easy to spot: the secondary had issues, the offense never fully settled in, and the price tag attached to the roster suddenly felt like part of the story.
Mike Norvell is now dealing with the kind of scrutiny that comes when expectations and production drift apart early. High-value additions such as quarterback Ashton Daniels and running back Quintrevion Wisner have not matched the hope that came with their arrival, and the debate around which transfers were worth the spending is only getting louder. For a fan base already frustrated by the loss, the lingering portal question is no longer just about who came in, but whether the Seminoles spent in the right places at all. [Read more 🡒]