A messy Week 6 across college football sent ESPN’s FPI numbers spinning, and a few teams took some hard hits while others made real noise. The formula has already produced some odd-looking results - Notre Dame jumping past Ohio State to No. 1, with two-loss LSU and Oregon still hanging around the top 10 - but the latest round of games gave the computers plenty more to chew on.
Louisville delivered one of the biggest jolts of the week with its 44-20 win over Florida State. That result pushed the Cardinals sharply upward in the FPI and offered another hint that the ACC still has work to do.
Louisville is 3-3, sits third in the league in FPI, and yet is given only a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Miami is the only ACC team inside the top 21 of the FPI ranking.
Purdue also made a major move after pounding Minnesota 41-13. The Boilermakers picked up one of Week 6’s biggest FPI climbs, though the path ahead still looks steep. FPI gives Purdue just a 35.5% chance to get to six wins, although there are now six Big Ten teams with worse odds - including Minnesota, the team Purdue just beat down.
South Carolina found a way to steady itself in a season that has been hanging by a thread. Shane Beamer’s group went on the road and beat Florida 38-19, a result that gave the Gamecocks a big lift in FPI and moved them to a mild favorite to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, at 57.7%. With frustration around Beamer still very much part of the conversation, every positive turn matters.
Florida State’s problems deepened after Mike Norvell’s team led Louisville 14-0 and then watched the game slip away. The Seminoles’ FPI standing dropped into the middle of the ACC pack, and their odds of getting to six wins now sit at 67%.
West Virginia’s Week 6 collapse was just as damaging. The Mountaineers fell 52-31 to Arizona and tumbled to the bottom of the Big 12 in the FPI rankings. At 3-3, they have only a 14.6% chance of reaching six wins, with only Colorado worse in the conference.
Florida, meanwhile, took another hit after its second straight loss. The Gators’ CFP chances fell all the way to 2.6%, and even their odds of winning six games dipped to 84.5%. Their slide into the middle of the SEC pack stands out as one of the league’s bigger developments from the week.
In Other News...
Florida State Fans Are Turning On Mike Norvell Fast
Florida States ugly 44-20 loss to Louisville left the Seminoles at 3-3, and it only deepened the frustration around Mike Norvells program. After the game, Norvell acknowledged how poorly his team played and said he was responsible for it, a familiar tone after a setback but one that did little to calm a restless fan base.
The noise around Norvell has only grown louder as supporters vent their dissatisfaction and begin floating bigger-name alternatives, including Deion Sanders, as a possible answer if the slide continues. No coaching change has been made, but the pressure around the Seminoles is becoming harder to ignore, especially with the season now sitting at a crossroads. [Read more 🡒]
Mike Norvells Gamble Sparked An FSU Collapse Fans Wont Ignore
Florida States trip to Louisville turned on a single aggressive choice near the goal line, one that immediately shifted the feel of the game. Facing fourth-and-goal from the two-yard line, the Seminoles passed on the field goal and went for six, only to come away empty-handed and hand Louisville the ball deep in its own end of the field.
From there, the game unraveled in a way Florida State fans will not ignore. Louisville answered with 35 straight points after trailing by two touchdowns, turning a manageable situation into a lopsided result and putting Mike Norvells decision under an even brighter spotlight. The bigger frustration is that the Seminoles had other offensive options in that moment, which is why the failed gamble figures to be debated for a while. [Read more 🡒]
Florida's Poll Collapse Is Another Reminder For Florida State Fans
Georgias win over Alabama reshaped the top of the Associated Press Top 25, with the Bulldogs climbing to No. 1 while Texas tumbled six spots to No. 7 after its loss to Oklahoma. Oregons slide out of the rankings for the first time in four years was another reminder of how quickly a season can turn once the losses start piling up, and the ripple effects reached beyond just the teams in the biggest games.
For Florida State fans, the latest poll churn offers a familiar lesson about how fragile preseason status can be. Notre Dame, Miami and Indiana all moved in response to what happened on the field, reinforcing the idea that reputation only goes so far when results start deciding the conversation. In a landscape this volatile, one bad Saturday can change the picture in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]