Florida State’s 2026 schedule is drawing a split reaction, and one national analyst thinks it ends the same way as last season: with the Seminoles sitting at 5-7.
On3’s JD Pickell mapped out every game on FSU’s slate and sees a fast start that eventually gives way to a late-season slide. In his projection, Florida State opens with wins in five of its first six games, including an early home win over SMU before Alabama delivers the first loss.
“You start the year off with a win over New Mexico State in Week 0, OK? Vibes are good,” Pickell said.
“SMU comes to you, and it will be SMU’s first game. Florida State already got the wheels greased.
I think you find a way to win in a weird Monday night game.”
He then added: "You lose at Bama, Ok? Alabama gets revenge.
You beat Central Arkansas; you beat Virginia, but here is where the tide turns. "
That turn comes quickly in Pickell’s forecast. After Florida State gets to 4-1 with a win over Virginia, he has the Seminoles dropping six of their final seven, with Boston College as the lone win in a closing run that includes Louisville, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State and Florida.
“Final record at Florida State: 5-7 and potentially some change in Tallahassee,” Pickell said.
The projection lines up closely with the betting market, though not perfectly. DraftKings has Florida State favored to go over 5.5 regular-season wins at -180, while also favoring the under 6.5 wins at -175. FanDuel has the Seminoles at 5.5 wins as well, with the over priced at -158.
ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index also sees a difficult road ahead, ranking Florida State’s schedule among the 25 toughest in the country and the hardest in the ACC. The final six games are especially demanding, with Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State and Florida all part of the stretch.
Florida State has missed bowl eligibility in each of the past two seasons, so another 5-7 finish would be tough to shrug off as nothing more than a brutal schedule. And if the Seminoles really do start 5-1 before the bottom falls out, the pressure around Mike Norvell would only get louder.
In Other News...
Florida State's Backup QB Battle Just Got Tougher To Ignore
Malachi Marshall arrived at Florida State late after transferring in from Iowa Western Community College, and the timing has made every rep matter. The junior college quarterback missed spring practice, then had to work through an injury during the opening stretch of fall camp, yet he has still done enough to catch the staffs eye while pushing for the backup job behind the Seminoles top quarterbacks.
What makes Marshall so interesting is the rsum he brought with him before ever getting to Tallahassee. He led Iowa Western to a national championship and posted strong numbers at the junior college level, which is part of why Florida State was willing to keep watching even after the slow start to his camp. With the backup battle still open, his progress has become one of the more quietly important storylines for the Seminoles as the season approaches. [Read more 🡒]
Florida States No. 3 Receiver Battle Is Getting Hard To Ignore
During Florida States fall camp in Jacksonville, the receiver competition behind the top options is starting to draw real attention, and freshman Jasen Lopez has worked his way into the mix for the No. 3 role in Mike Norvells offense. Lopez missed spring practice because of basketball commitments, yet he has still stood out for the kind of steady work that tends to earn trust quickly in camp, especially on a depth chart where every route and rep matters.
Jayvan Boggs brings a different case to the battle, with the sophomore already having played in eight games last season and offering the value that comes with experience. For a Seminoles passing game that is expected to be a major factor this fall, the growing competition between Lopez and Boggs is one of the more interesting subplots in camp, and it is not hard to see why the staff is paying close attention. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Is Sending A Clear Fall Camp Message
Competition has been the defining tone of Florida States fall camp, with the Seminoles making it clear that nothing will be handed out and no role is too small to matter. Coaches and players have repeatedly pointed to accountability and a team-first mindset, framing camp as a chance to build a roster that pushes itself instead of leaning on reputation or comfort.
Kam Martin and Mike Norvell have both underscored the same message from different angles: playing time has to be earned, and leadership has to be accepted no matter where a player sits on the depth chart. For a program trying to move past the disappointments of recent seasons, that internal edge may end up being just as important as anything that shows up on the practice field. [Read more 🡒]