Florida State heads into Saturday’s trip to Alabama carrying a road skid that’s gotten hard to ignore and even harder to explain. The Seminoles have dropped nine straight road games, and that number doesn’t even include neutral-site losses to Georgia and Georgia Tech. By kickoff, it will have been 1,029 days since FSU’s last road win.
That kind of stretch puts the current mess in some ugly company. The last time Florida State lost this many straight on the road was in the mid-1970s, when the Seminoles dropped 11 in a row from 1972 to 1974. They finally snapped that run in a 1-10 season at Miami in 1974, and if this current streak keeps rolling, it would match that mark if FSU loses its next two road games before heading to Miami in October.
The backdrop only got messier earlier in the week when Florida State fired athletic director Michael Alford. On the other side, Alabama has been doing what Alabama usually does at home in non-conference games. The Crimson Tide haven’t lost one since 2023 against Texas, and before that, you have to go back to 2007 and the loss to Louisiana-Monroe in Nick Saban’s first season.
Oddsmakers have already taken the hint. Alabama opened as an 18.5-point favorite.
Florida State is coming off a bye, but the last time it took the field, it lost to SMU despite winning the turnover battle 4-1. Alabama, meanwhile, started a little shaky on the road at Kentucky before rolling to a 45-17 win.
The biggest issue for Florida State on the road has been simple: the Seminoles have been dreadful. Over those nine losses, they’ve been outscored by an average of 34-16. They’ve topped 20 points only twice, reached more than 21 only once, and the defense hasn’t held anyone under 20.
Turnovers have been the killer. FSU is minus-14 in turnover margin during the streak, with 20 giveaways and only six takeaways.
The yardage numbers have been closer than the results, but the mistakes have piled up fast. Penalties have been a problem too, and when a team is piling up flags and turnovers away from home, that usually points back to preparation and execution.
Defensively, Florida State doesn’t have the kind of front that can just win by itself, so Tony White will have to create pressure on Keelon Russell, who is making his third career start. Russell was uneven early against Kentucky, but finished 16 of 23 for 188 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The more important detail for Florida State is that Kentucky took away his legs; he ended with -8 rushing yards after being sacked four times. That was a sharp contrast from his 86 rushing yards against East Carolina in the opener.
That means the Seminoles have to be disciplined when they blitz. White mixed in different pressures against SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, but Jennings was experienced enough to get the ball out quickly.
Russell may be more likely to panic and take off, and if Florida State loses contain, he could hurt them with his feet. Nothing the Seminoles have shown so far this season suggests that kind of discipline is a strength.
There’s also the quarterback situation on Florida State’s side, and it hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. Ashton Daniels played Alabama last year as Auburn’s starter and was, in the source’s words, fine, finishing with 259 passing yards on 18-of-39 passing with a touchdown and an interception, plus 108 rushing yards.
This season, Mike Norvell has kept tight control over Daniels. Of his 50 pass attempts, only 16 have gone 10 or more yards downfield, and only six of those have been throws outside the numbers.
Daniels has looked hesitant across the board. He’s double-clutching open throws, making 50/50 decisions on read options, and turning potential chunk plays into short gains by stuttering through running lanes. Some of that may be Norvell trying to keep mistakes to a minimum, but the result is the same: Daniels hasn’t been given much freedom, and when the offense is built that way, he’s not likely to suddenly start firing tight-window throws.
If Florida State gets the version of Daniels it’s shown in the first two weeks, this could get rough in a hurry.
The protection in front of him doesn’t help. Chimdia Nwaiwu was benched partway through the second game, and Alabama’s defense has already produced seven sacks in two games.
There’s a reason this matchup feels lopsided. Alabama is still working through some issues in its run game and with a young quarterback, but Florida State doesn’t appear to have many answers that can catch the Tide off guard the way it did last year.
Micahi Danzy’s jet sweeps haven’t worked since the middle of last season. Ashton Daniels doesn’t offer the same elusiveness as Thomas Castellanos.
Darrell Jackson is no longer there to command double teams. And Alabama still has to remember Mandrell Desir saying last year that playing against Alabama felt like high school.
Florida State has looked unprepared and often uninterested on the road under Mike Norvell since the start of the 2024 season. Saturday brings a chance to get fired up for a big opponent, but that kind of energy can also turn into mistakes.
The line opened at 18.5, and it would be a surprise if the game stays that close.
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For Florida State, the trip to Berkeley will be a first, adding another layer to a schedule that already figures to test depth and travel in equal measure. Under the ACCs 9-plus-1 model, the Seminoles will be playing at least 10 Power Four opponents for a seventh straight year, a reminder that the leagues new format is not easing the burden on anyone, least of all a team with major ambitions. [Read more 🡒]