Florida State’s bye week arrived with perfect timing, because the first two games have already piled up enough warning signs to fill a month.
The Seminoles are 1-1, 0-1, and they came out of the opening stretch looking flat against New Mexico State in Week 0 before getting outplayed by SMU on Labor Day. Even with a turnover margin that tilted roughly 4-0 in their favor, FSU still couldn’t make the game swing its way. After the loss, Mike Norvell called it, “Just another close game,” adding, “A lot of one plays, and you think back through it, some of the explosive plays that we had, that we gave up defensively, some missed opportunities there offensively.”
The schedule isn’t doing Florida State any favors, either. After the bye, the Seminoles head to Tuscaloosa to face 12th-ranked Alabama, which will be looking for revenge after FSU stunned the Crimson Tide in Tallahassee last season.
And if the warning lights weren’t already flashing, the numbers from the first two weeks make the situation look even shakier.
Start with Duce Robinson. He has only five receptions through two games, while Sam Singleton Jr. has six catches out of the backfield.
For a team that badly needs a reliable passing threat, that’s a problem. Robinson also had a chance to change the feel of the SMU game with a contested catch in the end zone, but he dropped it.
That miss fit the larger picture: Florida State’s passing game has been nearly invisible.
Against SMU, the Seminoles posted a 0.14 EPA/dropback, while the Mustangs were at 0.65, according to gameonpaper.com. FSU averaged 4.73 yards per dropback and landed in the 23rd percentile.
The issues go beyond one player, of course. The offense has been held back by a coaching staff that isn’t putting players in the best spots, an offensive line that’s been below average and quarterback play that hasn’t matched the preseason talk.
Ashton Daniels entered the year with plenty of praise for his maturity and command, but the production hasn’t followed. He’s completing 58% of his passes and averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt.
Against SMU, he lost the trust of the staff, which showed up in a strange number: just 23 passing attempts on 67 total offensive snaps. Without a quarterback who can push the ball downfield and also create easy throws, getting Robinson involved becomes a much tougher assignment.
“We have very good players on the wings, and we have to do a good job of moving them and putting them in positions,” offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. said after the SMU game. “We had an opportunity … that we couldn’t seize, but these are the balls that need to be won.”
The bye week has to be about fixing that connection and finding a way to make Robinson the centerpiece of the passing game. Right now, he’s more of a missing piece than a featured one.
The defensive front has its own set of problems. Florida State has just two sacks from its defensive line through two games, and the defense as a whole had none against SMU. However you frame it, that’s a rough opening.
Mandrell Desir and Daniel Lyons, the supposed headliners up front, have been quiet. Lyons didn’t record a stat against New Mexico State, and Desir didn’t even make a tackle against SMU. The idea was that a second year in Tony White’s system would unlock both players by moving them around the front, but that hasn’t happened yet.
The depth behind them hasn’t done much to change the story. Deante McCray has one tackle for loss and three total tackles.
Kevin Wynn and Jordan Sanders combined to play 32 of 67 snaps against SMU, and both earned PFF grades under 60. Rylan Kennedy and Jalen Anderson each have a sack, but neither has been an elite pass rusher.
White said his defense “balled out” for 60 snaps against SMU, but the front itself has not played like a unit that’s dictating anything.
Then there’s the bigger-picture number that says plenty about where Florida State sits right now: +25000 to win the ACC, according to FanDuel as of Saturday afternoon. A $100 bet would pay $25,000 if it hit. Those are the same odds FanDuel gave the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets to win the Super Bowl before the season.
Only Boston College and Stanford have worse conference title odds, which is a jarring place for Florida State to be just two games in and with only one league game played. It’s a steep fall for a program that won the ACC only three seasons ago.
And the path ahead doesn’t look any kinder. Miami is trying to build on last season, while Virginia and Louisville are both in the top 25.
That means FSU’s first four in-conference opponents and first five Power Four opponents are ranked right now. Clemson and a road trip to Pitt are still waiting down the line.
If the first two games are the warning, the next stretch could make the picture even uglier.
In Other News...
Mike Norvell Faces An Awkward Alabama Week Distraction
Florida State has spent its bye week getting ready for a marquee trip to Bryant-Denny Stadium, but the programs focus took a sharp turn with the firing of vice president and athletic director Michael Alford. Now Mike Norvell is set to face the media about a significant leadership change at the top of the department while still trying to keep his team locked in for a matchup with No. 10 Alabama.
It is not the sort of backdrop any coach wants in the middle of a big-game week, especially with Florida State sitting at 1-1 and trying to build momentum coming out of the break. Norvells comments will naturally draw attention beyond the field, because the Seminoles are now navigating both the challenge of an elite opponent and the uncertainty that comes with a major administrative shakeup. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Just Turned Up The Pressure On Mike Norvell
Florida State has made a major administrative change by firing Vice President and Director of Athletics Michael Alford after four years on the job, a move that lands at a moment when the football program is already under heavy scrutiny. The decision comes with the Seminoles trying to navigate recent poor performance on the field and growing financial concerns off it, two issues that have made every step in Tallahassee feel more consequential.
The universitys president and board have framed the move as part of a broader restructuring aimed at improving competitiveness, which only raises the stakes around what comes next for Mike Norvell and the program he is expected to stabilize. With the athletic department shifting underneath him, Florida State is clearly signaling that the margin for patience has gotten much thinner. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Turns To An Insider For A Crucial Athletic Department Reset
Florida State has turned to a familiar face to steady its athletic department after the firing of Michael Alford, naming Bruce Warwick as interim athletic director. Warwick has been with the Seminoles since 2019, working as senior associate athletics director for football, and now steps into a role that asks him to keep the department moving while the university sorts out its next permanent leader.
Warwicks background gives Florida State a built-in layer of institutional knowledge at a moment when continuity matters. Before arriving in Tallahassee, he built a long resume across college and pro sports with stops at Tennessee, Duke, Syracuse, Maryland and Clemson, along with the Rams and Green Bay Packers, which should help him manage the day-to-day business during the transition. The larger question is how long this reset lasts and what it means for the departments direction once the interim period ends. [Read more 🡒]