Florida State spent last season living on the edge of the NCAA Tournament picture, and now the Seminoles are trying to turn that near miss into an actual trip to March Madness.
Year 2 under Luke Loucks arrives with the same basic question hanging over the program: can Florida State finally get back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2021? The answer will have to come with a roster that looks almost entirely new.
Loucks’ first season ended with one of those moments that sticks around. Florida State had fought its way back into the conversation after an 8-12 start and a loss to SMU on Jan. 24, then ripped off 10 wins in its next 12 games and beat Cal in the second round of the ACC Tournament. That surge left the Seminoles one result away from making the selection committee sweat, and they pushed Duke all the way before a last-second shot caromed off the rim in an 80-79 loss.
That miss became the defining what-if from a season that also featured six losses by three points or fewer.
Now Loucks gets another shot, and he’ll do it with heavy turnover. Florida State brings back only three players from last season’s roster: Jasen Lopez, AJ Swinton and Jalen Crawford.
Lopez did not play, while Swinton and Crawford combined for 417 minutes and 124 points. Alex Steen could become the fourth returnee if he wins his appeal for a fifth year of eligibility.
The departures were significant. Seven players entered the portal, including second-leading scorer Chauncey Wiggins, who committed to Gonzaga. The Seminoles also lost third-leading scorer Lajae Jones, who was drafted in the second round, 54th overall, by the Golden State Warriors.
“I loved our boys last year; they did a great job getting better, improving, developing,” Loucks said.
So the rebuild begins with newcomers. Florida State is leaning on seven freshmen and five transfers for the 2026-27 season.
The recruiting class brought some juice. Florida State signed the 23rd-ranked class nationally and fourth-best in the ACC, according to 247Sports. Center Martay Barnes was the top-rated addition at 43rd nationally.
The portal group also gives Loucks pieces to work with. Florida State’s transfer class ranked 45th nationally and is led by Colorado power forward Sebastian Ranncik, who checked in as the No. 116 overall player and No. 26 power forward in the portal. The Seminoles added four other transfers as well.
“We have positional size at every position. We have strength, we have athleticism, we have a lot of skill,” Loucks said. “Our roster took a big step in the right direction.”
The schedule, though, is brutal. Florida State’s non-conference slate includes Florida on Nov.
10, Tennessee on Dec. 1 and Houston on Dec. 20.
All three are among the 10 best odds to win the national championship, with Florida sitting at +550 and Tennessee and Houston tied for eighth at +3000, according to DraftKings.
The ACC doesn’t offer much breathing room either. Florida State is listed with the 11th-best odds to win the conference regular-season title at +15,000, according to DraftKings, and an automatic bid by winning the ACC Tournament may be the clearest route to the NCAA Tournament.
That path gets steeper with Duke and Louisville coming to Tallahassee on Feb. 16 and Feb. 23. Duke is favored to win the ACC at -128, while Louisville has the second-best conference odds at +400.
Florida State also gets Miami twice, on Feb. 6 and March 6, and meets Virginia on Feb. 27. Miami and Virginia rank third and fourth in ACC title odds at +660 and +680, respectively.
All told, the Seminoles could see as many as eight games against teams ranked among the top 12 national championship favorites.
For Loucks and Florida State, that means the margin for error is tiny. Last season proved they could get within a single possession of March. This year will tell whether a rebuilt roster can finish the job against a schedule packed with contenders.
Their biggest on-court issue may be simple: scoring more efficiently. Florida State shot 44 percent from the field last season, which ranked 250th nationally. Duke shot 49.1 percent, good for 18th, and Gonzaga shot 50.5 percent, ranking eighth.
If the Seminoles are going to make the leap, that number has to move.
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