Florida State enters 2026 with a lot of noise around the program, and not much of it is quiet. After a 5-7 finish in 2025, Mike Norvell is staring at a schedule that leaves little room for error, a quarterback situation that could turn fast, and a trip to Tuscaloosa that already looks like one of the defining games of the season.
One of the boldest calls for the Seminoles is that they pull off an unexpected road win. That would be a sharp turn after Florida State opened 2025 by winning its first three games, including a 31-17 upset of Alabama in Tallahassee. This time, the return matchup comes in Tuscaloosa in September, with SMU at home also sitting on the early slate.
Alabama is coming off a playoff season in 2025, but the Crimson Tide return only three starters on offense and are projected to open with freshman Keelon Russell at quarterback. That timing could matter for Florida State, which would be catching Alabama early before Russell has much game experience. Even so, this is the kind of game the Seminoles are not expected to win.
Florida State’s offense should still have plenty of punch on the ground. The Seminoles finished 2025 just outside the national top 10 in rushing offense, averaging 218 yards per game and scoring 31 rushing touchdowns.
There is no Gus Malzahn this season, but the backfield still looks loaded. Former Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner joins returnees Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton, who averaged seven yards per carry in 2025.
They’ll be running behind an offensive line that is experienced but rebuilt, with right guard Nate Pabst, an all-MAC performer from Bowling Green, and Xavier Chaplin both carrying NFL talent.
The bigger question is under center, where a change could come before the season is over. Norvell named Ashton Daniels the starter after 15 spring practices, but Daniels has had ball-security issues throughout his college career.
He has 22 career interceptions against 24 touchdowns over four seasons, and in 2024 at Stanford he threw 12 interceptions and 10 touchdowns. That opens the door for a midseason switch.
If that happens, JUCO All-American Malachi Marshall looks like the most obvious candidate to take over. Marshall helped lead Iowa Western Community College to a NJCAA championship in 2025 and threw for more than 2,800 yards with 33 touchdowns and only eight interceptions.
He completed 63 percent of his passes with 201 completions, and his passer efficiency rating for the 2025 season was 179.1. That kind of production is hard to ignore.
Even with all of that uncertainty, the prediction here is that Florida State still wins eight games. The preseason win total sits at 6.5, and the Seminoles are projected to drop games to SMU, Louisville, Miami and Florida. That would still count as a step forward from last season’s seven losses, four of which came by eight points or fewer.
The catch is that eight wins still might not be enough for Norvell. The prediction is that 2026 is his final season in Tallahassee, with 17 losses over the last two years proving too much for him to survive. If that plays out, Florida State’s push to get back to winning football will come with a coaching change waiting at the end.
In Other News...
FSU Roster Update Signals A Stronger Leaner Team Before Fall Camp
Florida States latest roster refresh offered a small but telling snapshot of where the program is headed as fall camp approaches later this month. The Seminoles updated weight changes for 53 players since spring, and the numbers suggest a team that has spent the offseason reshaping itself, with eight players adding more than 10 pounds and four trimming more than 10.
Those shifts matter because this time of year is often where depth charts start to take shape, especially when the staff is looking for a roster that is both stronger and leaner. The changes were tracked by position group and class, giving a clearer look at how the Seminoles have evolved since spring and setting up a camp period that should bring even more clarity once the pads come on. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Just Made An Early Move For A Major QB Target
Florida States second and final Elite Camp before the recruiting dead period brought a familiar kind of summer buzz to Tallahassee, but one of the more notable visitors was four-star quarterback Chandler Dyson. The 2028 prospect recently made it to campus, got a chance to throw in front of head coach Mike Norvell and quarterbacks coach Austin Tucker, and did so shortly after Florida State jumped into his recruitment.
Dyson already has a growing list of suitors, with offers from several major programs and recent visits elsewhere, so the Seminoles are still early in the process. Even so, getting him on campus this quickly after entering the mix gave Florida State a useful first impression, and it now has a chance to keep building that relationship as the recruitment develops. [Read more 🡒]