At one point this season, both Florida State and Florida were riding high in the top 15 of the national rankings. Fast forward to the end of the year, and that early-season optimism feels like a distant memory. The Sunshine Showdown gave us a sobering snapshot of where both programs currently stand: Florida State finishes the year at 5-7, while Florida wraps up an even rougher campaign at 4-8.
The Gators made a major move midseason, parting ways with head coach Billy Napier back in October. Meanwhile, Florida State has decided to stay the course with Mike Norvell, announcing just over a week ago that he’ll be retained. But the numbers paint a tough picture - Norvell is now 7-17 over his last 24 games, and questions about the direction of the program are getting harder to ignore.
While FSU stands pat, Florida is turning the page. On Sunday, the Gators officially named Jon Sumrall as their next head coach, bringing in a defensive-minded leader for the first time since Will Muschamp took over after Urban Meyer stepped down in 2011. That’s a notable shift in philosophy for a program that’s cycled through four head coaches in the past 14 years - a stark contrast to Florida State, which has had just four in the last 49.
Sumrall’s résumé is hard to argue with. A former linebacker at Kentucky in the early 2000s, he’s climbed the coaching ladder steadily and made a name for himself as a top-tier recruiter during his time as co-defensive coordinator under Mark Stoops. He helped Kentucky land the No. 17 recruiting class in 2022 - a testament to his ability to bring talent to campus.
As a head coach, Sumrall has been nothing short of impressive. Over four seasons - two at Troy, two at Tulane - he’s posted a 42-11 record.
That includes at least nine wins in each season, two conference titles with Troy, and back-to-back American Athletic Conference Championship Game appearances with Tulane. The guy wins.
Period.
But now comes the real test: Can he win at the national level? That’s the question hanging over Gainesville.
Sumrall will finish out the season with Tulane, which still has a shot at a College Football Playoff berth. They’ll face North Texas in the American Championship Game on Friday in New Orleans - a high-stakes matchup that could be his final act before taking over in the Swamp.
If Sumrall can bring that same brand of consistent, tough-nosed, winning football to Florida, it could shift the balance of power in the Sunshine State. Florida State’s coaching stability is in question.
Miami, while not quite back to its glory days, has posted back-to-back 10-win seasons and is hanging around the playoff conversation. If Sumrall gets Florida humming again, there’s a very real possibility that FSU could find itself playing catch-up - not just to one rival, but to two.
In a state where recruiting battles are fierce and the margin for error is razor-thin, that kind of shift could have long-term implications. Florida’s made its move. Now it’s on Florida State to respond - or risk falling further behind in their own backyard.