Florida State is gearing up for a potentially intriguing season, thanks to some promising insights from ESPN analyst Bill Connelly. With the Seminoles ranking among the top 50 teams nationally in terms of returning production, there's a buzz around Tallahassee. Add in some seasoned and talented transfers, and FSU might just exceed the tempered expectations set for 2026.
Connelly’s SP+ advanced metrics offer a deeper dive into what we might expect. He places FSU as the No. 35 team nationally, with rankings of No. 45 on offense, No. 30 on defense, and No. 94 on special teams. These numbers paint a picture of a team that could be poised for a turnaround.
Last season, FSU wrapped up with a 5-7 record, but it's worth noting that four of those losses came by a touchdown or less. Turnovers and red zone struggles were the culprits in those close defeats. The Seminoles' record didn’t quite reflect their potential.
This offseason saw FSU making significant changes, including a new quarterback and a revamped offensive line, along with the loss of Darrell Jackson Jr. in the defensive line's center. The transfer portal brought in fresh talent and experience, but the question remains: Is it enough to silence the skeptics?
The early part of the season will be telling. FSU is expected to win its opener, but the real tests come with hosting SMU and a trip to Alabama.
These games could set the tone for the rest of the year. If the Seminoles can minimize turnovers, stay healthy, and nail the fundamentals, they might just pull off some surprises.
Coach Mike Norvell hasn't had the best luck in the past two years, but 2026 could be the year things finally click.