College Football Playoff Expansion Talks Heat Up: Will the Big Ten Blink?
Last week in Las Vegas, three of college football’s most powerful voices gathered for a critical conversation about the future of the sport. With Selection Sunday still fresh and the College Football Playoff (CFP) set to kick off, the commissioners of the ACC (Jim Phillips), Big 12 (Brett Yormark), and SEC (Greg Sankey) met in person to hash out what comes next for the postseason. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti joined remotely, but his virtual presence underscored the growing divide in vision between his conference and the others.
The central issue? How big the playoff should be moving forward-and how soon that change should happen.
The Current Landscape: 12 Teams, But for How Long?
The CFP is expanding to 12 teams for the 2024 season, but beyond that, things are far from settled. There’s a fast-approaching January 23 deadline to decide on the format for 2026 and beyond, and the commissioners are far from aligned.
The ACC, Big 12, and SEC appear to be rowing in the same direction, favoring a 16-team format that includes five automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions and 11 at-large selections. It’s a structure that builds on the current model, offering more access while still preserving the role of the selection committee.
But the Big Ten? They’re thinking bigger-much bigger.
The Big Ten’s 24-Team Proposal: A Bold Reimagining
Sources indicate that the Big Ten has formally proposed expanding the CFP to 24 teams. This isn’t just about adding more playoff spots; it’s a fundamental reshaping of college football’s postseason.
Under this model, conference championship games could be eliminated or significantly altered. The selection committee’s influence would shrink, with more automatic bids based on league standings. It’s a move that would shift power toward the conferences and away from subjective rankings.
It’s a seismic idea-and one that hasn’t exactly won over the other power brokers.
A Growing Push for 16
Despite the Big Ten’s bold stance, momentum is building behind the 16-team format. Most of the Group of 6 conferences are reportedly on board. Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who holds a seat on the CFP management committee, has voiced support for the 16-team model as well.
There’s a sense among many inside the room that 16 is the right next step. It’s an expansion that keeps the postseason manageable while addressing concerns that deserving teams are being left out.
“Is Tony [Petitti] going to compromise?” one power-conference athletic director asked. “I think most of us are comfortable going [to 16] next year.”
Jim Phillips echoed that sentiment in Vegas, saying, “My barometer over what’s enough and what’s not enough is if you’re leaving teams out of the playoff that could win a national championship, then you don’t have the right number.”
He added, “That cut line needs to be closer to all those that really have a legitimate chance to be in the playoff and win it. And we don’t have that right now.”
The Clock Is Ticking-and So Is the Contract
Complicating all of this is the fact that there’s no long-term contract in place for the CFP beyond this season. The current agreement with ESPN and the bowl games hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals is essentially a placeholder-a memorandum of understanding signed last spring that only covers formats involving 12 or 14 teams.
If the commissioners want to go to 16 or 24 teams, a brand-new deal will need to be negotiated. And that can only happen if the SEC and Big Ten-who hold the most sway in the room-can find common ground.
Right now, they’re not there.
The Bowl Game Ripple Effect
The uncertainty doesn’t stop at the playoff itself. The rest of the bowl system is also in limbo.
Many bowl contracts expire after this season, having been aligned with the original CFP deal. Without clarity on the playoff’s future, bowl organizers are stuck in a holding pattern.
“We can’t really do anything until they decide,” said one senior bowl executive. “It’s possible that there are some interim agreements that cover next season, but nobody really wants that.”
Everyone is waiting-conference offices, bowl committees, broadcasters-for the SEC and Big Ten to align on a path forward.
What Happens Next?
Unless the Big Ten softens its stance on a 24-team playoff before the mid-January deadline, the CFP could remain at 12 teams for the foreseeable future. That’s not a deal-breaker for the SEC, with Sankey indicating his conference is fine sticking with the current format-for now.
But make no mistake: the pressure is mounting. The last two seasons have shown that the 12-team model, while a step forward, still leaves room for debate-and for deserving teams to be left out.
The ball, as it stands, is in the Big Ten’s court.
Whether Petitti and his conference are willing to compromise could determine not just the size of the playoff, but the shape of college football’s postseason for the next decade.
And with the national championship looming and the CFP board of managers set to meet the Sunday before the title game, the clock is ticking louder than ever.