The second edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night, and we’re starting with fireworks. Oklahoma and Alabama square off under the lights at Memorial Stadium in Norman in a rematch of their regular-season showdown-a game the Sooners edged out 23-21. Now, with the stakes cranked up and a Rose Bowl berth on the line, both teams are heading into this one with something to prove.
Oklahoma: Defense First, But Offense Finding Its Rhythm
Let’s start with the Sooners, who are back in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019. Brent Venables has quietly built a team that’s not just good-it’s dangerous, especially on the defensive side.
Oklahoma enters the postseason at 10-2, riding a four-game win streak and boasting the top defense in the SEC. That’s not just a stat line-it’s a statement.
Over 12 games, they’ve allowed just 273.6 yards and 13.9 points per game, both best in the conference. This group doesn’t just slow teams down-they suffocate them.
Offensively, the Sooners aren’t lighting up the scoreboard, but they’ve been efficient when it counts. Quarterback John Mateer is leading the charge with a balanced, mistake-free approach. He’s helped guide OU to 26.4 points per game and, more importantly, kept drives alive in key moments during their recent stretch of wins over Tennessee, Missouri, LSU-and yes, Alabama.
Mateer is finally healthy after midseason hand surgery, and that’s been a quiet but crucial development. With him back at full strength, the Sooners have found a rhythm, and that’s especially true when it comes to his connection with wideout Isaiah Sategna III.
Sategna’s Surge: A Game-Changer for OU
Sategna III has been a revelation down the stretch. The Arkansas transfer took a few weeks to settle in, but since mid-October, he’s turned into Mateer’s go-to guy-and one of the most dangerous receivers in the SEC.
Over his last six games, he’s averaging 88 yards and nearly six catches per contest, with three 100-yard performances. He’s also scored in each of the last two games, showing off both big-play ability and red-zone efficiency.
Against Alabama’s pass defense-which ranks No. 1 in the SEC-Mateer and Sategna III will face their toughest test yet. But if Oklahoma can scheme ways to get Sategna III open, expect him to once again be a difference-maker. Another 100-yard, one-score game isn’t out of the question.
Alabama: Talented, but Trending the Wrong Way
On the other side, Alabama enters the playoff at 10-3, but the momentum isn’t exactly in their favor. After an 8-1 start, the Tide have dropped two of their last three, including the SEC Championship Game against Georgia and that earlier loss to Oklahoma.
Still, this is a team with talent-and one of the biggest reasons they’re back in the CFP for the first time since Nick Saban’s retirement is quarterback Ty Simpson. The 22-year-old has stepped into the starting role and delivered. Through 13 games, he’s completed 64.3% of his passes, racking up 3,268 yards and 26 touchdowns-both good for second in the SEC.
But lately, the cracks have started to show. Simpson was nearly flawless through the first nine games, throwing just one interception.
In his last four, though, he’s tossed four picks, and Alabama has lost two of those games. That’s not a coincidence.
When Simpson protects the ball, the Tide win. When he doesn’t, things unravel quickly.
And now, he’s facing a defense that’s forced nine interceptions this season and thrives on creating chaos. If Oklahoma’s pass rush can get home and their secondary continues to play disciplined football, Simpson and the Tide offense could be in for a long night.
Prediction: Oklahoma’s Defense Sets the Tone Again
This will be the third time these two programs have met in just over a year-thanks, conference realignment-and Oklahoma has taken the last two, including a dominant 24-3 win last fall. Friday night feels like a continuation of that trend.
The Sooners have the edge on defense, and while their offense isn’t explosive, it’s steady and opportunistic-exactly the kind of unit you want in a playoff setting. With Mateer healthy and Sategna III heating up at the right time, Oklahoma has the firepower to complement its elite defense.
Expect a hard-fought, physical game, but one where the Sooners’ ability to limit mistakes and capitalize on Alabama’s recent turnover issues makes the difference.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Alabama 17
That would send the Sooners to the Rose Bowl for a CFP quarterfinal showdown with No. 1 Indiana next Thursday. If this defense keeps playing the way it has, Oklahoma might not just be back in the playoff-they might be built to make a real run.