Florida’s Open Division picture has a little room for chaos left in it, and three Friday matchups could do real damage to the current projection.
Lakeland has stacked up seven straight wins, but the Dreadnaughts are hardly safe. They sit just 0.05 rating points ahead of the first team outside the projected Open Division field, which is why their Oct. 30 date with The First Academy has ripple effects far beyond Lakeland. The teams chasing that cutoff have plenty of reason to keep one eye on that game.
The setup is simple enough: the eight highest-ranked eligible teams from Classes 1A-6A will move out of their brackets and into the Open Division, with the final regular-season MaxPreps rankings deciding the field. The rankings referenced here come from the Oct. 25 update, and Friday’s results will count in the final judgment.
One of the biggest pressure points is in Miami-Dade County, where Miami Central (7-2) goes to Carol City (6-3) at 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. The Rockets are fifth in the eligible projection at 88.30, while Carol City’s published rating is 89.74.
Carol City is not included in this projection because of its reported postseason ban, so the Chiefs’ status is a separate matter from what happens on the field Friday. If that changes, the projected field would need to be recalculated.
For Central, the matchup comes after a lopsided 55-0 win over North Miami Beach, and it offers a much tougher measuring stick than that one. The Rockets’ weather-shortened 28-3 loss to Columbus still sits there, too, which makes this another chance for quarterback James Perrone and running back Ninaud Joseph to produce against a highly rated opponent.
The Rockets have a little more cushion above the cutoff than Lakeland does, but their finish still matters to everybody sitting below them. A win would give Central a victory over a team rated higher than the Rockets, while a third loss could open the door to more movement late in the state.
Another game with major consequences comes from West Palm Beach, where Carrollwood Day takes a 9-0 record into a 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff Friday against Newman. The Patriots are the top-rated team in Class 1A, but they are still outside the projected Open Division field, sitting at 83.58 and 0.96 points behind Lakeland.
Carrollwood Day would not automatically jump into the field with a win, since several eligible teams remain between the Patriots and eighth place. Even so, a victory would give them a win over a projected team while also handing Newman a loss.
Newman enters at 6-2, ranked seventh in the projection with an 86.95 rating after a 49-0 win over Saint Andrew’s. The matchup also puts Carrollwood Day’s offense under a spotlight; the Patriots are averaging 57.4 points per game, with running back Kameron Battle leading the ground attack.
Newman has its own answers in Janarro Sumpter and quarterback Pedro Martinez. The Crusaders have already seen Cardinal Mooney, West Boca Raton and Chaminade-Madonna, so they’re no strangers to teams in the Open Division conversation.
There’s also a twist beyond the Open Division race: if Carrollwood Day gets selected, it would knock Class 1A’s current highest-rated team out of that classification’s championship bracket.
Then comes the game with the clearest direct impact on the projected field: The First Academy at Lakeland at 7 p.m. ET Friday. Both teams are trying to stay inside the cut line, and the numbers leave almost no margin.
The Royals are sixth among eligible teams at 87.25. Lakeland is eighth at 84.54, with Cardinal Mooney right behind the Dreadnaughts and Clearwater Central Catholic and American Heritage of Plantation following.
The First Academy arrives off a 42-20 win at Ambassador Christian School in North Carolina, a game in which freshman running back Hyquez Russell carried 32 times for 243 yards and three touchdowns. He also caught three passes for 57 yards, so Lakeland has every reason to keep him in mind when freshman Deuce Woods Jr. is throwing the ball.
Lakeland counters with a defense that has allowed 88 points in nine games and comes in after a 35-10 win over Lake Gibson. The First Academy is only 0.30 points ahead of seventh-place Cardinal Newman, which means this one could rearrange the order inside the projected field and help decide who gets in at all.
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