The race for Florida’s Open Division field has turned into a knife-edge fight, and the tightest squeeze in the latest projection is at the bottom of the bracket. Miami Central currently holds the last projected spot, but Carrollwood Day is right behind it by just 0.12 rating points after finishing 10-0.
That tiny gap is the headline heading into the FHSAA’s bracket reveal at 5 p.m. Friday, Nov.
- The current projection is built off the Oct.
31 MaxPreps update and excludes independent IMG Academy and Carol City under its reported postseason ban. These are only projections, not the official selections, and any change in Carol City’s eligibility would reshape the field.
Carrollwood Day made its final push with a 28-14 win at Cardinal Newman, completing a perfect regular season. The Patriots also beat Jacksonville Trinity Christian 63-21 and Eau Gallie 41-7, and they scored 545 points while allowing 68 across their 10 wins. Even with that résumé, they still sit one spot outside the eligible eight-team field and now have to wait to see whether they land in the Open Division or the Class 1A bracket.
Miami Central’s hold on the final projected berth is far from comfortable. The Rockets dropped 27-10 to Carol City and now sit behind Lakeland, Raines and Venice in the eligible projection after previously being fifth. Their schedule includes a 23-22 win at Orange Lutheran and losses to Buford, Columbus and Carol City, though they did finish 5-0 in district play.
Just above that cutoff, Raines has surged into the projected field after a perfect regular season. The Vikings beat Ribault 52-13 in the Northwest Classic on Saturday and now sit 0.33 points above Carrollwood Day. Their resume includes wins over Mandarin, Venice and Cocoa, and the 20-17 victory over Venice gives them a head-to-head edge over the team immediately behind them in the projection.
Venice is also inside the current field despite not playing in Week 11. The Indians wrapped up their listed regular-season schedule with a 62-8 win over North Port on Oct.
- Their only loss came at Raines, and they also own a 32-25 double-overtime win over Lakeland, which is now fifth in the eligible projection.
Venice trails Raines by 0.02 points and leads Miami Central by 0.19.
Cardinal Newman’s loss to Carrollwood Day sent the Crusaders tumbling from seventh in the previous projection to 10th. They now trail Miami Central by 0.93 points and have Carrollwood Day between them and the cutoff.
Newman still has one listed game left, a home date with West Broward at 6 p.m. Monday, Nov. 2, and that gives the Crusaders one more chance to improve their case before the reveal.
American Heritage is still in the mix, but the Patriots are 1.74 points behind the final projected spot. They finished their listed schedule with a 26-18 win over McArthur on Oct. 23 and have won four straight since a 21-16 loss at Lakeland. Their other losses came against West Boca Raton and Chaminade-Madonna, both projected Open Division qualifiers.
Clearwater Central Catholic also remains on the board after a 44-0 win over previously unbeaten Clearwater. That was the Marauders’ third straight victory, following wins over Boca Ciega and Lakewood, but they still sit 1.85 points below the projected cutoff.
Columbia closed a perfect regular season with a 48-0 win over Suwannee. The Tigers also beat Bolles, Trinity Christian and ED White, and they trail American Heritage by 0.27 points in Class 4A while sitting 2.01 points behind Miami Central for the Open Division cutoff.
Bolles helped its own case by handing Buchholz its first loss, 31-28 on Friday. The Bulldogs’ only defeats came against unbeaten Columbia and Jacksonville Trinity Christian. They are now 2.07 points below Miami Central and just 0.06 behind Columbia.
The First Academy took the biggest hit in the latest update, falling from sixth to 15th after a 35-0 loss at Lakeland. The Royals now trail the final projected spot by 2.27 points.
They still have a home game listed against West Boca Raton at 5 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the Bulls are third in the eligible Open Division projection.
Carol City remains the wild card. The Chiefs carry a 90.67 rating, which would place them sixth in this projection if eligible. If they were reinstated, Raines would slide to seventh and Venice to eighth, and Miami Central would fall out of the field.
For now, Miami Central sits in the last projected berth, Carrollwood Day is the closest challenger, and the rest of the chase is crowded just behind them. Friday’s reveal will settle which teams move into the Open Division and which stay in their class brackets.
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