Phil Steele’s preseason magazine always gets college football people talking, but his 2026 “surprise teams” list doesn’t exactly scream shock value. Alabama, BYU, Oklahoma, USC and Utah all make the cut under his rule that teams have to start outside the Top 10. That’s a strong group, sure, but not the kind of long shot that really jolts the sport.
If you want the teams that would actually turn heads, the better exercise is to find one true surprise from each Power 4 conference. And to qualify here, each team has to be listed at +2000 or longer to win its conference in 2026.
In the Big 12, the pick is Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham is trying to rebuild after the Sun Devils lost 49% of their production from last season and watched QB Sam Leavitt leave for LSU.
Still, there’s enough back to work with at the skill spots and along the defensive line, and Dillingham’s reputation as one of the country’s sharpest offensive minds keeps the ceiling alive. The new quarterback is Cutter Boley, who arrives from Kentucky as a 4 Star Transfer Portal prospect with plenty of upside.
The schedule is rough, though. Arizona State is expected to be a heavy underdog at Texas A&M in Week 2, and after that comes a three-game stretch that could get them to 3-1.
But with only two losses likely to be survivable, the Sun Devils probably need to steal one of their road games against Texas A&M, Texas Tech or BYU - and all three are away from home.
The ACC surprise team is NC State. Dave Doeren is entering his 14th season with the Wolfpack, and his 95-70 record there tells you how steady this program has been.
He’s had four nine-win seasons, and QB CJ Bailey gives NC State a real chance to play above its billing. Bailey is described as one of the ACC’s most dynamic signal callers, but he’ll need help from what has to be a better offensive line.
The defense also has to climb from its 12th-place finish in the league last season. The opening stretch matters a lot: a Week 0 trip to Virginia could set the tone, followed by a road game at Vandy in Week 2 and a home date with Louisville in Week 4.
Win two of those three, and 10 wins starts to look possible later on.
Washington is the Big Ten team to watch. Demond Williams Jr. is the kind of quarterback who can sneak into the dark-horse Heisman conversation, and Jedd Fisch has the coaching background to build an offense that piles up points and yards.
Fisch has worked under Steve Spurrier, Sean McVay and Bill Belichick, and Washington has the ingredients to be dangerous. Williams posted more than 3600 combined yards in 2025, four offensive linemen are back from an offense that ranked 5th in the Big 10 last season, and the defense finished 5th in scoring defense in the league in 2025.
The first 10 games look manageable enough that the Huskies should be 4-0 before heading to USC. They also get Iowa and Penn State at home.
If they survive that run, the final stretch brings Indiana at home and Oregon on the road. Getting to 10 wins won’t be simple, but if Williams takes another leap, Washington can make things very uncomfortable for the rest of the league.
In the SEC, the surprise pick is Florida. The Gators check in 11th nationally in the Blue Chip Ratio at 53%, tied with USC, and the roster is loaded enough to matter.
Jon Sumrall also brought in two veteran coordinators in OC Buster Faulkner and DC Brad White, which gives Florida a proven staff around a talented group. The big swing factor is the quarterback situation, along with how quickly the offensive line comes together.
If those pieces settle, Florida has the kind of roster that can steal a win or two nobody sees coming. The schedule offers some openings too.
Of the five road games, only one comes against a preseason Top 10 team - the Oct. 17 trip to Texas. The other four road opponents, Auburn, Missouri, Kentucky and Florida State, combined for a 23-26 record.
Sumrall has never won fewer than nine games in a season as a head coach, and if he gets Florida to that number in Year 1, he’d have a strong Coach of the Year case.
None of these teams is being picked as a playoff lock. But that’s not the point. These are the programs that could actually create a buzz if things break right - and in July, that’s enough to keep hope alive.
In Other News...
Florida May Be Waiting On One Huge Denzel Aberdeen Decision
Denzel Aberdeens next step could matter a lot for Floridas backcourt plans, and it has nothing to do with what he did in Gainesville last season. The former Kentucky guard, who transferred to Florida, is still working through the eligibility side of his future as he tries to keep his college career going, and the Gators are watching closely because his status could shape how Todd Golden builds the roster for 2026-27.
Golden has already made clear he would stand behind Aberdeen if the matter turns into a longer fight, which tells you how seriously Florida is taking the situation. Aberdeens value is easy to understand after the way he handled pressure moments at Kentucky, and if the eligibility process goes the wrong way, the next chapter could shift from paperwork to the courtroom before Florida knows whether it can count on him for another season. [Read more 🡒]
Todd Goldens Roster Just Got A Complicated NCAA Eligibility Twist
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For Florida, the wrinkle is that the benefits are not spread evenly. Some players suddenly have a much longer runway, while others are left sorting through exceptions and waiting on final clarity, which makes roster planning more complicated than a simple rules update might suggest. Golden and athletic director Scott Stricklin are already aligned on at least one waiver request, and the broader picture now hinges on how the NCAA sorts out the remaining cases for a roster that could look very different by the time that season arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Just Got A Brutal Reality Check In The SEC
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Now Jon Sumrall inherits that pressure after Billy Napier was shown the door last season, and the latest conference hierarchy is another reminder of how far Florida has slipped. Being slotted No. 7 in the SEC is not where this program expects to live, and it leaves the Gators with a familiar question hanging over the offseason: can the new regime actually close the gap on the leagues best, or is this just another reset in a long line of them? [Read more 🡒]