Baylor’s bowl picture looks a lot brighter after Friday’s 41-9 rout at UCF, and the projections are starting to reflect it.
The Bears are now 5-3 in Joe Klanderman’s first stretch as interim head coach, and after back-to-back losses to TCU and Kansas, they’ve given themselves some breathing room in the race for bowl eligibility. They still need one more win in their final four games, with Saturday’s matchup against Iowa State offering the first chance to lock it up.
That improved position has Baylor showing up in all five bowl projections in this week’s roundup. The Bears were left out last week, but Athlon Sports has them back in the mix, and three of the five outlets keep them in Texas.
The most intriguing possibility comes from ESPN’s Mark Schlabach, who projects Baylor against Florida in the Texas Bowl in Houston. That would set up a reunion of sorts for DJ Lagway, giving him a shot at his former team.
Lagway’s first season at Baylor has already included an ankle injury, uneven accuracy and a big performance Friday, when he threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns. A matchup with Florida would hand him a chance to show how far he’s come since leaving the Gators.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has Baylor headed to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis against Missouri. That would still keep the Bears in SEC territory after their season-opening 17-16 loss to Auburn, and it would offer another meaningful test for a team trying to finish a turbulent year on a better note.
Bonagura had Baylor facing FAU in the First Responder Bowl last week, while Schlabach previously slotted the Bears against Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl.
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford also sends Baylor to Dallas, but he has the Bears meeting FAU in the First Responder Bowl. That’s a change from his previous projection of Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Dallas would be the easiest trip for Baylor fans, though FAU doesn’t carry the same buzz as Florida or Missouri. Still, the matchup would come with its own challenge. Through eight games, Caden Veltkamp has completed 71.8% of his passes for 2,536 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions, and Baylor’s pass rush would need to throw off his rhythm against an offense averaging 37.8 points per game.
There’s also a clear path for the Bears on the ground. FAU is allowing 256 rushing yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry, which makes this a tempting spot for Ryelan Morris and the rest of Baylor’s backs. Running the ball well would help the Bears control the clock and keep Veltkamp on the sideline.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan has Baylor in Dallas as well, but with Penn State on the other side. He left the Bears out after the losses to TCU and Kansas, then brought them back into the postseason picture against one of the more familiar names in college football.
That would be a very different kind of test. Penn State is allowing 18.6 points and 296.3 yards per game through eight games, including just 141.4 passing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed only 53.6% of their throws against the Nittany Lions, with six touchdowns and nine interceptions, so Lagway would have far less margin for error.
The ground game may be the better route there too. Penn State is giving up 154.9 rushing yards per game, and steady production on the ground would help Baylor avoid obvious passing downs and keep Lagway in more manageable situations.
College Football News projects Baylor to the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, with Army as the opponent. That would give Baylor fans another easy trip, but it would also bring a very different kind of defensive assignment.
Baylor limited UCF to 66 rushing yards on 30 carries, but Army’s option attack asks for a different level of discipline. Defenders have to stay locked into their assignments, because one wrong step can open the door for the quarterback or the pitch man.
For now, though, the bigger issue is simple: Baylor needs one more win. If the Bears beat Iowa State on Saturday, they’ll secure bowl eligibility before finishing the regular season against BYU, Texas Tech and Houston, and they can spend the rest of November chasing a better postseason landing spot.
In Other News...
Florida Suddenly Faces A Bigger Problem Than Just Losing To Georgia
The loss to Georgia did more than knock Florida down in the standings. It left Jon Sumrall talking less about the scoreboard and more about what happens next inside the locker room, where the Gators have to show they can absorb a hit and still move forward. Sumrall said the team has to own the defeat and keep its focus on the path still in front of it, with a nine-win season still sitting there if Florida can handle the stretch run.
Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State are all still on the schedule, and each one now carries extra weight as Florida tries to keep its playoff hopes from slipping away. For a team coming off a rivalry loss, the bigger test may be emotional as much as physical, because the Gators need to prove the Georgia setback was a stumble and not the start of something worse. [Read more 🡒]
Floridas Playoff Path Just Got A Lot More Complicated
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What comes next will decide whether Florida stays in the hunt or fades from the picture. The Gators still have Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State left on the schedule, and the challenge is obvious: win out and give the committee a reason to keep looking their way. The matchup with No. 6 Kentucky stands out as the toughest hurdle in that stretch, and it may end up telling the story of whether Floridas playoff hopes remain realistic or just mathematically possible. [Read more 🡒]
Floridas Offense Has A Bigger Problem Than Fans Wanted To Hear
After Floridas loss to Georgia, the conversation around the offense has shifted from one bad afternoon to a broader concern about how much of the problem is self-inflicted. Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner pointed to the basics first, saying the Gators have to cut down on mistakes, stay out of penalties and clean up the fundamentals that have been holding the unit back. He said the issues have shown up across every position group, which is usually the kind of diagnosis that tells you this is bigger than one matchup.
The rushing game is part of the same picture, with Faulkner stressing the need to eliminate negative plays and get the offense moving forward instead of constantly fighting uphill. The quarterback situation remains part of the evaluation as well, with Tramell Jones Jr. and Aaron Philo both still in the mix while the staff keeps working through the options. Florida now turns its attention to Oklahoma, and the next stretch will say plenty about whether these fixes are real or just another round of postgame promises. [Read more 🡒]