The first three weeks of the 2026 college football season have already shaken up the College Football Playoff race, and the biggest swings in the market tell the story pretty clearly. Some teams have turned strong starts into real postseason momentum. Others have watched their odds crater before September even ends.
Using CFP qualification odds on Kalshi from the preseason to now, the clearest risers are Ole Miss and Florida, while Oregon and Texas A&M have taken the hardest hits.
Ole Miss has made the loudest move of all. The Rebels opened the season with 39% CFP odds and now sit at 56%. That jump makes sense after they’ve already collected the two best wins in the country through three weeks, beating Louisville and LSU.
Even with those results, Ole Miss is still just barely better than a coin flip to reach the Playoff. The reason is the road ahead.
Florida, Texas and Georgia are all still on the schedule, along with other tough tests. Kalshi’s win total projection gives the Rebels only a 39% chance to get to 10 or more wins, which leaves the door open for a 9-3 team to sneak into the field.
Florida has also climbed fast. The Gators went from 23% preseason odds to 35% after Week 3, even though they still don’t have a top-25 win. The market seems to like what Florida has shown on the field and what’s happened around it.
The Gators are 2-0 against the spread against FBS opponents, and quarterback Aaron Philo has been excellent. Philo is 8th nationally in passer efficiency rating, ahead of every SEC quarterback not named Gunner Stockton or Kamario Taylor.
Florida’s path also looks a little cleaner than it did in August. South Carolina, Oklahoma and Florida State have all stumbled early, and that changes the feel of the schedule. Texas and Georgia still wait on the road, but 9-3 may be enough to get Florida into the CFP field, and the odds of that are rising.
At the other end of the spectrum, Oregon has been the season’s biggest faller. The Ducks were at 75% in the preseason and have tumbled all the way to 35%.
Their start has been uneven from the jump. Oregon was only mildly impressive in its Week 1 win over Boise State, then got blasted by Oklahoma State in Week 2. A Week 3 rout of Portland State did not repair the damage.
The numbers behind Oregon’s offense are ugly, too. According to Game on Paper, the Ducks are in the 20th percentile in EPA-per-play.
That’s a rough place to be for a team that brought back Dante Moore and a stack of highly touted playmakers and linemen. The schedule doesn’t get easier either, with a trip to Columbus still on the slate.
For now, Week 4 against USC looks like the swing game for Oregon’s Playoff hopes.
Texas A&M has also seen its CFP outlook nosedive. The Aggies were at 40% in the preseason and are down to 13% now.
The damage started with a brutal opening to SEC play against Kentucky. Not only did the Wildcats pull the upset, they controlled the game from start to finish. That kind of loss, especially to one of the weakest teams on the schedule, hit A&M’s postseason case hard.
It may get worse before it gets better. Texas A&M is expected to take another loss this weekend in Baton Rouge, and that could leave the Aggies with no margin for error before September ends. They still have five ranked opponents left, plus a road trip to Norman in late November.
Even with the individual swings, the conference outlook hasn’t changed all that much. The SEC is still projected to be the deepest league in the CFP picture, though its expected total has slipped from 4.52 preseason teams to 4.35 now. Florida and Ole Miss have helped, but Texas A&M, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Auburn have all given some of it back.
The Big Ten has taken a similar step back, dropping from 3.54 expected Playoff teams to 3.24. Oregon’s collapse has done the most damage there, and Washington has also disappointed.
Ohio State, meanwhile, has barely moved at all. The Buckeyes’ loss to Texas hasn’t changed much in the market, and they still have the same 74% chance to make the CFP that they had in the preseason, per Kalshi.
The ACC and Big 12 both remain in position to potentially get two teams into the Playoff. The ACC currently sits at 1.86 expected teams, while the Big 12 is at 1.94.
In Other News...
Urban Meyer Just Validated What Florida Fans Are Starting To Believe
Urban Meyer has seen enough to take a side in Floridas favor heading into the SEC matchup with Ole Miss, and for Gators fans, the timing matters. Speaking on The Triple Option podcast in his role as an analyst, Meyer pointed to the way Florida has been playing lately and said he expects Jon Sumralls team to handle the Rebels when the game arrives. It is the kind of outside endorsement that lands differently when a program is trying to build belief around its recent form.
Floridas offensive growth has been a big reason optimism has been rising, with running back Jadan Baugh helping drive a unit that has looked more balanced and more difficult to slow down. That puts real pressure on an Ole Miss defense that has to deal with a team playing with confidence and a clear identity. The matchup still has to be settled on the field, of course, but Meyers read matches the feeling around Gainesville that this one may be leaning Floridas way. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Faces A No. 1 Test Some Insiders Don't Trust Them To Pass
Ole Miss comes in carrying No. 1 billing after a strong start and a fresh SEC win, but the early-season conversation around this matchup has not been as simple as the ranking suggests. ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis put the Rebels atop his AP Poll projection, then still picked Florida to win the upcoming game, a choice that says plenty about how close this one looks on paper and how much respect the Gators are earning after their own 3-0 start.
Florida has put itself in position to make this a real test, with running back Jadan Baugh emerging as a central piece of the offense while Ole Miss leans on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss to keep the momentum rolling. The game shapes up as more than a ranking check for the Rebels and more than a measuring stick for the Gators, with both coaching staffs trying to sort out which early strength travels best when the SEC stakes rise another notch. [Read more 🡒]
Rueben Chinyelu Has One Big Chance To Change Floridas Ceiling
Rueben Chinyelu already gave Florida plenty to build on last season, and his return for a senior year gives the Gators a different kind of foundation. He paired a strong 2025-26 campaign with program-record production on the glass, collecting offensive boards and double-doubles at a rate that had not been seen in Gainesville in years, while also earning defensive and academic recognition along the way.
Now the challenge is bigger than simply repeating it. After briefly entering the 2026 NBA Draft before pulling back, Chinyelu is back with a clear purpose: sharpen the offensive side of his game and raise Floridas ceiling in the process. For a team that already knows what he can do around the rim and on the boards, the next step is whether his growth can turn a dependable interior force into something even more impactful. [Read more 🡒]