A rare SEC track meet is on deck Saturday, and the ingredients are all there for Florida and No. 4 Ole Miss to turn this into a points parade.
Both teams come in 3-0 overall and 1-0 in conference play, and both have already crossed 110 points through three games. Florida has been especially explosive, sitting in the top five nationally in total yards per game at 544.3 and yards per play at 7.97, while also ranking No. 1 in points per possession. Ole Miss checks in at 46th nationally with 444.7 yards per game, though the Rebels have done it against much tougher competition than the Gators.
“Last week's performance will not cut it; Ole Miss is well coached, talented and a huge challenge,” Head coach Jon Sumrall said. “We need a great home-field advantage Saturday. I think we'll have an awesome crowd.”
The oddsmakers see a close one. Florida opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and the line has moved to -3.5 at Hard Rock Bet. The over/under sits at 60.5, which tells you plenty about how this matchup is being framed.
Sumrall, though, sounded almost amused by the idea of Florida being favored over Ole Miss.
“Yeah, there’s a lot of good drugs out there, huh?”
History adds another layer. Florida and Ole Miss are tied 13-13-1 in the all-time series, and the Gators have not lost to the Rebels at home since 2008.
That 31-30 game still carries a strange aftertaste for plenty of Florida fans, mostly because of what came next: Tim Tebow’s famous “I Promise” speech. Florida went on to win its third national championship that season.
There’s also a rougher trend hanging over the Gators. Florida has dropped its last 12 games against AP top-five teams, with its last win over one coming against No.
5 Georgia in 2020. The last time Ole Miss came to The Swamp ranked in the top five, Florida handled the No.
3 Rebels 38-10 in 2015.
On the Ole Miss side, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been the engine. The Heisman buzz is real for a reason.
He’s 77 of 110 passing for 924 yards, which ranks ninth among FBS quarterbacks, and he brings a dangerous run element that can break a defense if it loses discipline. Sumrall knows that firsthand.
Chambliss ran for a season-high 112 yards against Tulane, and in the College Football Playoff game against Sumrall’s team, he added two rushing touchdowns.
Florida junior defensive lineman Jayden Woods is one of the players tasked with slowing him down, and he understands the challenge. Woods also has personal history with Chambliss, having picked him off on Ole Miss’ first play of its third drive last November.
“It’s good to think about it and reflect. But that was last year. Right now, I’m going to focus on this weekend,” Woods said.
Chambliss has another major weapon in senior receiver Deuce Alexander, who stayed with the Rebels after Lane Kiffin’s exodus. Alexander made an immediate statement in the opener, catching five passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns.
The biggest Ole Miss question entering the weekend is the status of running back Kewan Lacy. He went down late in the third quarter against LSU after taking a hit to his left shoulder, the same shoulder he had surgery on during the offseason. As of Tuesday, he was a game-time decision.
Lacy has already dealt with another issue this year, missing part of the second half in the opener against Louisville because of a thigh bruise. When he’s right, he changes the shape of the offense.
Against LSU, he had 43 rushing yards on nine carries and a touchdown in the first quarter alone. Ole Miss led 24-7 at halftime and looked in control before LSU rallied for 17 unanswered points after Lacy’s injury, with the Rebels eventually answering with a game-winning touchdown drive.
Florida, meanwhile, will lean on Aaron Philo to steer the offense and keep the Gators on schedule. He’s been the kind of quarterback who lets the playmakers do the heavy lifting, and that may be the plan again if this turns into the back-and-forth game the numbers suggest.
The real edge for Florida may be on the ground. The Gators gashed Auburn for 243 rushing yards after facing a defense that had been allowing just 76.5 per game, and they enter this matchup with a rushing average of 246 yards.
That sets up a big night for Jadan Baugh, who has already forced 30 missed tackles, the most in the FBS. Ole Miss has allowed 159 rushing yards per game and has 46 missed tackles, the second most in the Power Four.
Baugh is coming off a huge day of his own: 164 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore Duke Clark has also given Florida another useful punch, including seven carries for 50 yards and a 20-yard touchdown run on third-and-goal against Auburn.
Florida’s receiving group has its own rising voice in sophomore Vernell Brown III, who is somehow only 19 years old and already sounding like a veteran. Brown has led the Gators with 246 receiving yards and said leadership has never been a problem for him.
“I would say I’ve always kind of been more of a vocal leader; I’ve never been scared to speak up,” Brown said.
That passing game may also find opportunities against an Ole Miss secondary that has struggled with communication and assignments, giving up 12 explosive plays of 20 yards or more for 340 yards against.
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