Greg McElroy thinks the key to Saturday’s Georgia-Florida showdown is hiding in plain sight: Florida’s run game versus a Georgia front that has been stingy all season.
On his Always College Football podcast, the ESPN analyst backed No. 3 Georgia to respond after its first loss of the year and beat No.
17 Florida 34-20 in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m.
ET on ABC.
“Florida’s road win at Texas was legitimate. But Georgia’s front takes away the run game,” McElroy said.
Georgia reached No. 1 after edging Alabama 20-17 on Oct. 10, then stumbled in a 27-24 home loss to Auburn the following week. In that game, quarterback Gunner Stockton threw two interceptions after absorbing a hard hit on the opening play. Kirby Smart said Stockton did not show concussion symptoms.
“Now, he did have a stinger in his shoulder, and that can affect you,” Smart said.
Auburn’s next outing only added to the debate around Georgia’s earlier win, since the Tigers then lost 38-17 at home to LSU. Paul Finebaum called Georgia’s victory over Auburn “fluky,” but McElroy expects the Bulldogs’ offense to get back on track coming out of the bye.
He sees the game tilting in Georgia’s favor in two specific areas.
“The two biggest matchups in the game both belong to Georgia’s offense: the short passing game against a defense that has struggled to stop it, and third down against a defense that has struggled to get off the field,” McElroy said.
Florida is still sorting out its quarterback situation, with Jon Sumrall not naming a starter between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. Philo, a transfer from Georgia Tech, started the first six games and went 70.5% for 1,341 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions before a shoulder injury.
Jones stepped in and threw two touchdowns in his first career start, a 27-24 upset at then-No. 7 Texas.
“Both guys are available,” Sumrall said. “I’m not going to name a starter today. We need both guys ready to play.”
Smart said Georgia has to get ready for both possibilities. “One beat Ole Miss handily. One beat Texas on the road,” Smart said.
That win in Austin ended a rough stretch for Florida that included losses to Missouri, 45-17, and South Carolina, 38-19. Sumrall also made clear he knows this matchup carries a different feel.
“Florida-Georgia is different. Anybody that says otherwise is insane,” Sumrall said.
McElroy also pointed to Florida running back Jadan Baugh, an Atlanta native, as a major part of the Gators’ plan. He said Sumrall’s teams are 37-3 when they rush for 125 yards or more, which would help Florida slow the pace against a Georgia defense that allows under 3 yards per carry.
Penalties could be another swing factor. McElroy said if Florida keeps the flag count under six, then “the upset path very, very open.”
Georgia’s own style could also keep the game tighter than the final result might suggest. “Georgia goes for it on fourth down less than any team in the FBS,” McElroy said. “That’s a formula for winning comfortably without covering a massive number, because punts and field goals leave the door ajar.”
Georgia has won five straight in the series, including a 24-20 victory in Jacksonville last season.
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