A one-million-run ESPN simulation says Florida’s season could swing from ugly to unforgettable - and in one of the most optimistic paths, the Gators don’t just reach the College Football Playoff, they knock off the defending champions along the way.
Using ESPN’s SP+ projections, Bill Connelly laid out several possible outcomes for the 2025 season, ranging from plausible to chaotic. Florida’s playoff odds come in at 12.8%, which ranks 10th in the SEC.
That puts the Gators ahead of Auburn at 10.8%, South Carolina at 9.4% and Vanderbilt at 8%. Florida also carries a 3.8% chance to win the SEC.
Georgia sits at the top of the league in both key categories, with a 50.5% chance to make the CFP and a 21% shot at taking the conference title. Florida did not land inside ESPN’s top 20 for national championship probability, but one of the simulation’s best-case runs painted a very different picture.
In that version, Florida closes the regular season at 9-3 and earns a playoff spot. The Gators are seeded No. 10 and sent to Memorial Stadium for a first-round matchup with No.
7 Indiana. Florida survives by a single point, then advances to the Fiesta Bowl, where No.
2 Notre Dame ends the run in lopsided fashion.
The other extreme is far less flattering. In simulation No. 18,541, Florida finishes 4-8 and manages only two SEC wins, a reminder of how wide the range of outcomes is for Jon Sumrall’s team.
At the very top of the simulated bracket, Oregon beats Ohio State by one point to win the national championship.
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The part still hanging over that picture is Denzel Aberdeen, whose eligibility remains unresolved as college basketball continues to work through legal and eligibility questions. Florida can map out a contender with the core it already has, but Aberdeens status could shape just how high the Gators can go and how much margin they have if the season starts to get bumpy. [Read more 🡒]