Florida Run Game Faces A Big Test In Missouri

Expert analysts weigh in on the Florida-Mizzou clash, with predictions reflecting on each team's strengths and vulnerabilities.

Florida’s win over Ole Miss has the Gators carrying momentum into Week 5, but the conversation around Saturday’s game in Columbia is less about what Florida just did and more about whether Missouri can answer at home.

CBS Sports Network’s “Inside College Football” crew - Aaron Taylor, Brian Kelly, Brian Jones and Rick Neuheisel - all weighed in on the matchup, and the panel split on the outcome. Kelly backed Missouri to pull the upset, while Jones and Neuheisel went with Florida. Taylor also leaned toward the Gators.

Kelly said he has been impressed by Florida, but sees a different team emerging each week and likes Missouri’s chances in its own building.

“I’ve been so impressed with Florida and what they’ve been able to do. But this season, to me, feels like each week, a new team shows,” Kelly said. “I think Missouri is ready in this game at home and pulls off the upset against a Florida team that’s heavily favored.”

Jones pointed to Florida’s ground game, especially Jadan Baugh, after both Baugh and Duke Clark topped 100 yards against Ole Miss. He said the Tigers’ defense is tougher than the Rebels’ but still didn’t see enough to slow the Gators if the rushing attack holds up.

“This team coming in with Duke Clark, Jadan Baugh, both went over 100 (yards) versus Ole Miss,” Jones said. “If this running game continues to do what it’s done and stays consistent, I don’t see any stopping them.”

Taylor noted Florida’s 13-game road losing streak against ranked opponents, but also questioned whether Missouri should be ranked at all. He also cited Missouri’s record against ranked teams since 2024.

“(They) are only 1-9 against ranked teams (since 2024), so it’s a classic ‘they ain’t played or beat nobody,'” he said. “Florida is a legit team.

Jon Sumrall is going to have them right. … I do believe it comes down to that run game, and they’re going to grind them to a pole.”

Neuheisel sided with Florida, saying his concern centers on Austin Simmons and his inconsistency.

“I think he’s shown flashes of brilliance, but consistency, maybe not so much,” he said.

Missouri comes into the game after being outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter of a 31-24 loss to Mississippi State, a result Eli Drinkwitz said was hurt by execution errors.

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Floridas 52-28 win over Ole Miss did more than add another ranked victory to the ledger. It pushed the Gators up to No. 8 nationally and reinforced the idea that this team is beginning to look like a program with staying power, not just a nice early-season storyline. Jadan Baugh was central to that picture, piling up 142 rushing yards and three touchdowns while continuing to pace the nation in rushing scores.

The momentum has spilled beyond the field, too, with Florida landing commitments from 2028 recruits Cyion Smith and Samuel Bailey and getting another bit of good news when basketball player Denzel Aberdeen was cleared for the 2026-27 season. For a fan base used to measuring progress in narrow steps, the week felt like one of those rare stretches when almost everything seemed to be moving the right way at once, even if the bigger test of just how far this run can go is still ahead. [Read more 🡒]