The first College Football Playoff rankings are about to drop, and Florida may end up sitting a little better than its AP Poll spot suggests.
The Gators are No. 25 in the AP, but the CFP committee has never been shy about doing things its own way. If this projection is even close, Florida could climb all the way to No. 21 when the rankings come out later tonight.
At the very top, the guess here is Georgia, not Miami, at No. 1.
That comes down to the committee’s usual preference for résumé strength, and Georgia’s three top-30 wins in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings compared with Miami’s one. Miami is 8-0, but the committee has shown before that undefeated doesn’t automatically mean No.
The rest of the projected top four would be Notre Dame and Indiana. Notre Dame checks in highly across the computer models, sitting No. 1 in both FPI and the Sagarin rankings and No. 3 in SP+. Indiana gets the edge over Ohio State here, even though the Buckeyes have the better computer numbers, because the committee is expected to make room for at least one Big Ten team in the top four.
Behind that group, Kentucky lands at No. 5, followed by Utah, UCLA, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State and BYU. Kentucky’s 7-1 record and strong placement in Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule make it hard to push them down, especially with the committee’s SEC lean.
Utah and UCLA are both unbeaten, but their schedules are so soft that they are projected outside the top four. Texas at No. 9 comes with some danger, though the head-to-head win over Ohio State helps.
BYU rounds out the projected playoff field as the final at-large team, with the win over Notre Dame giving them a boost.
Boise State is the projected Group of Six team to make the playoff, landing at No. 22. The Broncos are viewed as having the best computer profile among that group, which gives them the edge over New Mexico.
Just outside the bracket, Ole Miss is projected at No. 12, followed by LSU, Wake Forest, Texas Tech and Tennessee. Ole Miss is expected to be the first team out because its best win, LSU, does not stack up as well as BYU’s win over Notre Dame.
That also creates a hurdle for LSU. Wake Forest and Texas Tech are held back by poor strength of schedule, while Tennessee remains in the mix thanks to a schedule that still gives it a chance to rise.
Florida’s path in this projection is straightforward: No. 21, ahead of several teams in the AP Top 25, and right in line with where many computer rankings already have the Gators. Wins over Texas and Ole Miss give Florida a better case than some teams around it, even if South Carolina is currently the line standing in the way. Houston and Arizona, meanwhile, are viewed as lacking the kind of high-end win that would push them much higher.
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Florida Just Backed Up Its No 1 Hype Against Miami
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Todd Golden also picked up a milestone victory in the process, reaching 104 wins and moving into a tie for a notable spot in program history. For a team that entered the night with expectations as high as any in the country, the opener offered more than a clean result. It showed Florida can win with defense, composure and enough balance to make its top billing feel real. [Read more 🡒]
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Florida has been looking for signs that its frontcourt can set the tone, and Haughs night offered one of the clearest ones so far. Malik Reneau had a tough time against that interior group, which only adds to the sense that the Gators may already have a matchup edge worth watching as the schedule gets more demanding. [Read more 🡒]