Greg McElroy sees Texas handling Florida when the Longhorns and Gators meet Saturday afternoon in Austin.
The former Alabama quarterback, who played under Nick Saban and spent plenty of time in high-pressure SEC games, broke down the Week 7 matchup on his Always College Football podcast and came down firmly on Texas. The game is set for a noon ET kickoff on ABC.
McElroy’s read is shaped by what both teams are carrying into the matchup. Florida looked like a contender only a few weeks ago, sitting unbeaten and inside the top 10.
But consecutive losses to Missouri and South Carolina dropped the Gators out of the AP Top 25. They enter at 4-2 overall and 2-2 in SEC play, trying to stop a three-game skid before it starts.
Texas is coming in bruised as well. The Longhorns took a gut-punch, last-second loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, a result that knocked them out of the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll. Texas is now 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the SEC after slipping six places, and it’s trying to avoid the same kind of back-to-back losses Florida has already endured.
For McElroy, the matchup tilts toward the Longhorns.
“I’m taking Texas to win the game, 31-17,” said McElroy on his Always College Football podcast. “I think Texas will win on third down all afternoon, because Florida’s defense is probably going to have a hard time getting off the field. I think Texas is built to live in short yardage.
“Florida’s offense has stalled the past couple weeks against SEC defenses, and this is the best defense I think they’ve seen so far, and that’s no disrespect to South Carolina or Missouri. Texas is a step up in competition and personnel. … Texas wins this one, slowly and on schedule, whether or not we see the offensive fireworks is one of the biggest questions in the game.”
McElroy’s pick was one part of the conversation around the game, with the Kalshi market also listing where it thinks the betting edge lies heading into Saturday in Austin.
In Other News...
Todd Golden Calls Out NCAA Fight Hanging Over Floridas Season
Florida has already seen how the NCAAs shifting eligibility rules can ripple into a season, and Todd Golden is not hiding his frustration with the latest version of the issue. Denzel Aberdeen was cleared to play in the 2026-27 season after a dispute over the five-year eligibility rule that had initially left out athletes from the high school class of 2022, a wrinkle that Golden argued made little sense given how the policy was being applied.
Aberdeen took the standard college path and is now eligible under the revised rule, which applies to the class of 2023 and beyond, but the broader fight is still hanging over the sport. Golden has made clear he views the NCAAs approach as inconsistent, and the legal battles tied to it have become another reminder that roster planning can shift just as fast as the rules themselves. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Needs Vernell Brown For Texas But One Problem Remains
Florida has a chance to get a key piece back at the right time, with wide receiver Vernell Brown III practicing recently after missing the past two games because of a knee injury. His timing matters because Brown has been one of the more reliable targets in the offense this season, piling up 17 catches for 271 yards and two touchdowns, and the Gators could use that kind of production with Texas coming to town.
The wrinkle is at quarterback, where Aaron Philo is questionable because of a shoulder injury. If he cannot go, sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. is expected to start, which would only add to the uncertainty around how Florida will piece together its passing game. Browns availability is still a positive sign, but the Gators may not know until later how much of that boost they can actually use. [Read more 🡒]
Florida's Defense Has One Growing Problem At The Worst Time
Floridas defense has reached an uncomfortable point midway through the season, with the unit giving up 29.0 points per game overall and 37.0 in conference play, numbers that put the Gators near the bottom of the SEC. Head coach Jon Sumrall has responded by taking a more hands-on approach, while defensive coordinator Brad White has pointed to the accumulation of small errors as a major reason the group keeps losing ground.
The timing is what makes it sting. Florida is trying to clean up communication and play more consistently, but the next test is a daunting one in No. 7 Texas, a matchup that offers little margin for the kind of breakdowns White has been describing. With the schedule tightening and the standard for defensive improvement getting higher by the week, the Gators need the fixes to show up quickly. [Read more 🡒]