Florida heads to Lexington for a Week 11 SEC showdown with Kentucky, and the betting market has already nudged a bit as Tuesday’s latest lines came in from BetMGM.
The Gators arrive unranked at 5-4 overall and 3-4 in conference play after a 23-7 home loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. Kentucky is 7-2 and 5-2 in the SEC, ranked 13th in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25, but the Wildcats are also trying to bounce back from a rough weekend of their own after Tennessee rolled to a 34-6 win in Knoxville.
Florida still owns the series overall, holding a 55-22 advantage since the teams first met in 1917. The Gators are also 22-13 in Lexington. Even so, Kentucky took last year’s meeting at Kroger Field, 38-7, and has won four of the last five against Florida.
The numbers make this one a tricky read, but Florida’s offense is the biggest swing factor. The Gators have scored just under 13 points per game in their four losses, though they did put up 27 against Texas in the middle of that stretch. The defense has looked more settled at times, but the offense has gone cold.
Part of that slump lines up with the absence of Vernell Brown III, who has been out since getting hurt against Ole Miss. The run game has also disappeared after opening the season as one of the nation’s most effective units.
Kentucky’s defense has been solid, though not dominant. It sits 44th in SP+ and 71st in Pro Football Focus, with the run defense checking in at 95th in PFF’s rankings. That leaves at least a path for Florida to find something on offense.
Hope springs eternal, and the pick here is for the Gators to catch a break in Week 11 and pull the upset.
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