Florida’s clearest path against Texas doesn’t start with the offense and it doesn’t begin with the defense. It runs through the third phase.
That matters because the Longhorns enter the weekend as the heavier favorite for a reason. Their defense has been excellent, even with a new coordinator in Will Muschamp, and Florida’s offense has spent the last two games struggling to get anything going against South Carolina and another lesser opponent. The Gators are going to have to level up just to get past the 10-point mark.
Still, Texas is not invincible. Oklahoma just beat the Longhorns while scoring only 10 true offensive points, with the other 17 coming from non-offensive scores and a turnover-shortened field.
The Sooners’ longest drive went only 52 yards for a field goal, their touchdown march covered 48, and they missed a field goal after a 40-yard possession. They didn’t even reach 240 yards and still walked away with the win.
That game showed Texas can be pushed around when things get messy, even if Brent Venables has built a defense that can keep them afloat. Florida’s defense, though, has not been close to that standard this season.
The Gators did bother Texas a year ago, and the Longhorns’ offense has been uneven outside of the blowout of Texas State. They put up only 30 against UTSA, and that remains their only trip out of the 20s since the opener.
Arch Manning is nearly right at the national average in passing efficiency, and Texas’ run game has been ordinary despite the money poured into transfer help at running back and on the offensive line.
So if Florida can avoid being the kind of tonic that suddenly fixes an offense, Texas could still help keep this game tighter than expected. But if the Gators are going to pull the upset, they need a phase where they actually hold the edge.
Special teams is that phase.
For the first time since 2010, Florida is being coached by someone who treats special teams like it matters. After years of miscues under Billy Napier and Dan Mullen’s general disinterest in the third phase, Jon Sumrall has made it a priority, and it has shown up.
Vernell Brown III would obviously help the offense if he returns, but his presence would also give Florida a lift on special teams. If the defense can force a few more punts and Brown is back to return them, the Gators could create some field-position advantages.
The same goes for kickoff returner London Montgomery, who was not on the injury report this week after being listed as questionable last week. He still handled a couple of returns against South Carolina, but a healthier Montgomery was a big part of the Ole Miss win.
More than anything, Florida’s special teams have simply been sound. The Gators are lining up correctly, not busting assignments, and not creating the kind of avoidable chaos that has haunted them in the past. The penalties are there, but that’s true across every phase.
Texas, by contrast, has been a mess in this area in 2026.
One of the non-offensive touchdowns Oklahoma scored came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone, with three crimson jerseys arriving at the punter almost at the same time. A week earlier, the Longhorns allowed a 57-yard punt return touchdown to Tennessee.
The problems don’t stop there. They have kicked off out of bounds in each of the last two weeks.
Penalties have taken away productive punt returns from their top return man, and that same return man also erased a return by someone else after simulating a fair catch. Then there was the failed onside kick late against the other UT, which gave Tennessee extra life down the stretch.
Florida is going to have to scrape together every bit of hidden yardage it can find in this game. The good news is the Gators have the personnel to do it. If Brown is available and close to himself, he can provide a return spark that helps an offense likely to have trouble scoring regardless of who starts at quarterback.
The odds are steep. Florida knows it. But if the Gators find a way to win on Saturday, special teams may be the biggest reason why.
In Other News...
Todd Golden Calls Out NCAA Fight Hanging Over Floridas Season
Denzel Aberdeens path back into the picture has brought an old NCAA eligibility fight back to the surface, and Florida coach Todd Golden did not hide his frustration with how the issue was handled. Aberdeen was cleared to play in the 2026-27 season after the NCAAs five-year eligibility rule initially left out athletes from the high school class of 2022, even though his college route followed the usual timeline.
Golden has publicly criticized the ruling and the legal battles that followed, saying the class of 2022 was treated inconsistently. The decision now applies to the class of 2023 and beyond, which makes Aberdeen eligible under the newer interpretation, but it also leaves Florida and other programs watching how much more fallout the NCAAs rule change may still create. [Read more 🡒]
Jadan Baugh Is Forcing A Bigger Draft Debate In Gainesville
Jadan Baugh has become one of the most important pieces in Floridas attack under Jon Sumrall, and his rise has started to carry real NFL weight. Through six games, the running back has piled up 673 yards and seven touchdowns, production that has helped fuel the Gators while also putting his name in the national draft conversation. Mel Kipers latest board reflects that momentum, with Baugh checking in at No. 14 overall and as the top running back available.
For Florida, the question is no longer just how much Baugh can do on Saturdays, but how that production translates when evaluators start weighing his physical traits and long-term value. His profile also lands in the middle of a changing college football economy, where NIL money can alter the calculus for talented running backs deciding whether to stay put or move on early. That makes Baugh more than a breakout story in Gainesville. It makes him a case study for what the position is worth now, and what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Heads To Texas With Pressure Rising And McElroy Weighing In
Greg McElroy is leaning toward Texas in Floridas upcoming SEC trip, pointing to the Longhorns work on third downs and the Gators recent trouble getting the offense moving. It is the kind of prediction that lands with extra weight this time of year, especially with both teams carrying the usual conference pressure and the spotlight only getting brighter as the game approaches.
Florida enters the matchup needing a cleaner offensive showing, while Texas has enough in its recent play to make outsiders view the Longhorns as the steadier side. For the Gators, it is less about any one forecast than the larger picture around the program right now, because a loss in Austin would only add to the questions that have been building around the team. [Read more 🡒]