As we turn the page into February, the Florida Gators find themselves in a familiar position-gearing up for a postseason push with their eyes firmly set on March. Todd Golden’s squad, fresh off a national title run in 2025, is once again in the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation. But this year’s journey might look a little different.
Florida sits at No. 7 in KenPom and No. 12 in the NET rankings-two metrics that the Selection Committee leans on heavily. Yet, the AP Top 25 has the Gators down at No. 17, largely due to six losses on the season.
That discrepancy underscores the complicated nature of tournament seeding, where perception and analytics don’t always align. And in a sport where matchups can make or break a run, that seed line matters more than most fans realize.
Bracketology Watch: Gators Hovering Around the 3 Line
According to the latest projections, Florida is currently trending as a No. 3 seed in most major bracket forecasts. ESPN and USA Today both have the Gators slotted in Tampa for their opening weekend, which would be a significant advantage for a team that thrives off crowd energy and rhythm. CBS Sports, meanwhile, pegs Florida as a No. 4 seed, still in Tampa, but with a slightly tougher road ahead.
That small difference between a No. 4 and No. 3 seed might seem trivial on the surface, but it could be the pivot point that defines Florida’s March. The difference isn’t just about pride-it’s about path.
A No. 4 seed could mean a second-round matchup with a dangerous No. 5 team like St. Louis, and a potential Sweet 16 clash with a rested No. 1 seed like Duke.
A No. 3 seed, on the other hand, could delay that heavyweight showdown until the Elite Eight, giving Florida a better shot to build momentum.
Potential Matchups: Familiar Foes and Favorable Paths
Let’s break down what that path could look like. ESPN’s current bracket has Florida opening against No.
14 Winthrop, a team that's popped up in multiple projections as a likely first-round opponent. From there, the Gators could see No.
6 Clemson and then No. 2 Illinois in the Sweet 16.
That Illinois matchup is especially intriguing-Florida beat the Illini in a closed-door scrimmage earlier this season, and that was before the Gators were firing on all cylinders.
CBS’s projection paints a similar picture, with Winthrop in the first round and a potential second-round test against St. Louis.
But again, it’s the Sweet 16 matchup that looms large. As a No. 4 seed, Florida could be staring down Duke’s frontcourt-rested, physical, and built to challenge Florida’s own bigs.
That’s not a matchup you want on short rest.
And it’s not just Duke. Other projected No. 1 seeds like Michigan, Arizona, and UConn all bring size and depth that could cause problems for Florida in a short-turnaround scenario.
The Gators have the talent to compete with anyone, but the margins are razor-thin in March. One extra day of rest, one favorable matchup, one seed line difference-it all matters.
Florida’s Ceiling Is Still High
Despite the six losses, the metrics and the eye test both say the same thing: this Florida team is built to make noise in March. They’ve got the experience of a championship run, a coach who knows how to scheme in big moments, and a roster that’s deep, versatile, and battle-tested.
If the Gators can keep stacking wins and play their way into that No. 3 seed-or even flirt with a No. 2-their bracket could open up in a big way. And once you get to the second weekend, anything can happen.
Florida isn’t just trying to defend a title-they’re positioning themselves for another run. The road may be different, but the destination remains the same.