The College Football Playoff is sticking with 12 teams for 2026-but don’t let the headline simplicity fool you. Beneath the surface, there are some significant tweaks to the selection criteria that could have real consequences for teams like Florida, especially if they find themselves on the playoff bubble.
Let’s rewind for a second. Heading into the 2025 season, Florida’s schedule was a gauntlet.
Everyone knew it. And when head coach Billy Napier was asked about it, his answer was simple: “Spot the ball.”
That’s coach-speak for “bring it on.” But after a season that didn’t end in playoff glory, Florida now enters 2026 with less national buzz and even longer odds of making the CFP.
Now, here’s where it gets tricky. The playoff format is staying at 12 teams, despite some major behind-the-scenes debate.
The Big Ten reportedly pushed for a 14- or even 16-team field, while others floated expanding all the way to 24. But for now, 12 is the number.
That should be good news for bubble teams, right? Not so fast.
Notre Dame gets a clearer path
One of the key clarifications in the 2026 format is that Notre Dame, if it finishes in the top 12, will automatically get a playoff spot. That might sound fair on the surface-after all, if you’re a top-12 team, you’ve earned your shot. But it’s not that simple when you consider how the rest of the field is selected.
Take last season, for example. Notre Dame finished No. 11 in the final CFP rankings, but didn’t make the cut because Tulane and James Madison were the fourth- and fifth-best ranked conference champions, and the system at the time prioritized those champions. Under the new rules, Notre Dame would’ve been in-and Miami, who finished No. 10, would’ve been out.
Power Four conferences now get guaranteed seats
Here’s the other wrinkle: All four remaining Power Four conferences-SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC-are now guaranteed an automatic bid. That’s in addition to the top Group of Six (G6) champion.
It’s a small change on paper, but it has big implications. In last year’s model, James Madison got in as a top-ranked conference champ.
Under the new setup, they’d be out, and an unranked Duke squad-as ACC champion-would’ve taken their place.
That’s the kind of shift that matters for teams like Florida.
Florida’s playoff path just got narrower
Let’s say Florida has a strong 2026 season-10-2, ranked No. 9, feeling good about its playoff chances. Under the 2025 model, that resume likely gets them in.
But with the 2026 tweaks? Not so fast.
Picture this hypothetical:
- No. 9: Florida
- No. 10: Texas Tech as Big 12 champ
- No. 11: Michigan
- No. 12: Notre Dame
- No. 20: Duke as ACC champ
- No. 25: Tulane as G6 champ
That’s six teams, and under the new model, all of them could leapfrog Florida. Why? Because Texas Tech, Duke, Tulane, and Notre Dame would all be guaranteed spots-pushing Florida out of the field despite a top-10 finish.
In other words, Florida could be too good for the Pop-Tarts Bowl, but still not good enough for the playoff. And that’s not just a hypothetical-it’s a very real possibility in this new landscape.
What if chaos reigns?
Now imagine a season where the G6 has a banner year. Let’s say Boise State and an undefeated AAC champ both crack the top 8.
Meanwhile, the Big 12 and ACC champs are unranked but still get their automatic bids. Suddenly, a team like Florida-sitting at No. 10-gets squeezed out again.
Here’s how that might look:
- No. 1: SEC champ
- No. 2: Big Ten champ
- No. 3: Another SEC team
- No. 4: Another Big Ten team
- No. 5: Texas Tech (not Big 12 champ)
- No. 6: Miami (not ACC champ)
- No. 7: Boise State
- No. 8: Undefeated AAC champ
- No. 9: Another SEC team
- No. 10: Florida
- No. 11: Big Ten team
- No. 12: Notre Dame
- No. 15: Big 12 champ in an upset
- No. 20: ACC champ in an upset
In 2025, Florida would likely survive that shuffle. But in 2026?
With Notre Dame, the ACC champ, and the Big 12 champ all guaranteed spots, Florida falls out of the bracket. Again.
Bottom line
The Gators don’t just need to win-they need to win big. In the new playoff world, being a top-12 team isn’t enough.
You’ve got to be top-12 and on the right side of the selection criteria. That means beating the teams you’re supposed to beat, pulling off an upset or two, and hoping the rest of the country doesn’t descend into chaos.
Because in 2026, the margin for error just got a whole lot slimmer-and Florida’s path to the playoff is now as much about politics and placement as it is about performance.