The Athletic is calling for a Week 3 stunner in Auburn’s favor, and it’s doing it with a razor-thin finish: Auburn 28, Florida 27 at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Manny Navarro made the pick even while noting that Aaron Philo has been the sharper of the two starting quarterbacks through the first two weeks. Still, Florida goes into the game as a 2.5-point road favorite, which makes the prediction stand out even more.
The key matchup, Navarro says, is Florida’s Jadan Baugh against Auburn’s run defense. Baugh, a Doak Walker Award watchlist honoree, has piled up 296 yards and five touchdowns on just 28 carries this season.
Auburn’s front has been sturdy so far, giving up no rushing touchdowns and limiting Southern Mississippi and Baylor to a combined 153 rushing yards. The Tigers have also kept everything in front of them on the ground, with no run longer than 12 yards allowed.
That sets up the pressure point in Navarro’s view: if Auburn can bottle up Baugh, Florida may have to lean harder on Philo in a tense road environment. Even then, that might not be a disaster for the Gators. The Athletic also said Philo has been “considerably sharper” than Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown over the first two weeks.
Brown, though, carries a little history into this one. He helped USF put together an 87-yard game-winning drive at the Swamp last season before transferring to Auburn.
“He works his Gainesville magic once again and finishes an 80-yard fourth-quarter drive with a quarterback keeper. Auburn wins 28-27,” Navarro wrote.
Florida has looked dominant to open the season, but The Athletic isn’t buying that level of play carrying over in its first SEC road game.
In Other News...
Florida Just Gave Auburn Fans A Painful Reminder Before SEC Opener
Floridas social team leaned into the kind of memory Auburn fans would rather not revisit ahead of the SEC opener, using LaMical Perine to narrate a hype video for the primetime matchup. The clip centers on Perines long touchdown run from the 2019 Florida-Auburn game, a moment that still stands out for Gators fans because it helped deliver the win and added another layer to a rivalry that rarely needs much extra fuel.
Now the two programs meet again with both entering unranked, both 2-0, and both guided by new head coaches, which gives this one a different feel even before kickoff. Floridas reminder was sharp and simple, but it also underlined how much history can still shape an SEC opener, especially when the past includes one play Auburn supporters would just as soon forget. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Just Found The Formula That Could Change This Season
Florida left Jordan-Hare Stadium with more than a hard-earned win over Auburn, because the Gators finally put together the kind of complete effort they have been searching for. The 44-39 victory delivered Florida its first 3-0 start since 2019 and its first SEC road win since 2024, a welcome sign that the program may be finding its footing early in the season.
Jadan Baugh gave the offense a clear identity, piling up 162 yards and three touchdowns while also ripping off a crucial 53-yard run on fourth-and-one. Floridas defense did its part with seven sacks, the kind of disruptive night that can travel, and the bigger question now is whether this performance was a one-off surge or the start of something the Gators can lean on moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Just Delivered The SEC Statement Gators Fans Needed
Floridas trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium brought the kind of road result that can shift a seasons mood in a hurry, and it came with plenty of drama attached. The Gators beat Auburn 44-39 for their first win in Auburn since 1999, improving to 3-0 and giving Billy Napiers team a signature SEC win to hang onto early in the fall.
The offense was the headline, especially on the ground, where Jadan Baugh powered through for 162 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. Aaron Philo added a steady passing night by completing 15 of 22 throws for 204 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Floridas second-half surge helped overcome a penalty-filled game and keep Auburn from stealing it back late. [Read more 🡒]