Florida Eyes Fifth Straight Win Over LSU With Key Advantage at Home

With momentum on their side and key matchup advantages, Florida looks to extend its dominance over LSU while fine-tuning for the SEC stretch run.

After a grueling stretch that included back-to-back road games and three ranked opponents in their last four outings, the No. 16 Florida Gators are finally back in Gainesville-and the timing couldn’t be better.

On Tuesday night, they welcome LSU to the Stephen C. O’Connell Center for what shapes up to be their most favorable SEC matchup to date.

Florida (13-5, 4-1 SEC) is riding high after a statement win over then-No. 10 Vanderbilt, while LSU (13-5, 1-4 SEC) just picked up its first conference victory against Missouri. But don’t let the Tigers’ record fool you-this is still a team capable of giving opponents trouble, especially if you let them hang around.

“They’re better than their record,” Florida head coach Todd Golden said. “They had Texas A&M on the ropes on the road and nearly knocked off Kentucky. This is a group that could easily be 3-2 in the league.”

Here’s what Florida needs to do to keep rolling and notch its third straight home win.

1. Set the tone defensively

LSU has struggled to find its rhythm on offense lately, and a big part of that has been the absence of junior guard Dedan Thomas Jr., who’s been sidelined since suffering a leg injury in late December. Before going down, Thomas was the Tigers’ engine-averaging 16.2 points and 7.1 assists per game. He had a 23-point, 7-assist performance against Boston College that showcased just how much he means to this offense.

His status for Tuesday remains unclear, but if he’s out again, Florida has a prime opportunity to clamp down on a team still trying to find its identity without its floor general.

“He’s a really good point guard,” Golden said. “They’ve had to adjust without him, and that’s not easy.”

Florida’s defense, which ranks fifth in the SEC in opponent field goal percentage (41.5%), has been solid overall, but there have been cracks. Against Oklahoma, they held Nijel Pack to just five points on 2-of-8 shooting, but the Sooners lit them up from deep, hitting 10 of 16 from three. Then came Vanderbilt, which dropped 94 points on 51% shooting and got five players into double figures.

LSU, especially without Thomas, doesn’t have the same firepower. This is a chance for Florida to reset on the defensive end-lock in, force tough shots, and get back to the kind of effort that can carry them deeper into the SEC slate.

2. Dominate the boards

If there’s one area where Florida has consistently flexed its muscle this season, it’s on the glass. The Gators lead the nation in rebounds per game (46.3), rebound margin (+15.6), and offensive boards (16.8). That’s not just impressive-it’s elite.

LSU, on the other hand, ranks fifth in the SEC in opponent rebounds allowed (32.2 per game), and they’ll have their hands full trying to contain Florida’s frontcourt duo of Reuben Chinyelu and Alex Condon.

Marquel Sutton leads the Tigers in rebounding at 8.5 per game and had a strong showing against Missouri with 26 points and six boards. But at 6-foot-9, he’s giving up size to both Chinyelu (6-10) and Condon (6-11), and that mismatch could be a major factor.

Chinyelu, the reigning SEC Player of the Week, is averaging a double-double with 10.7 rebounds per game. He notched his 10th double-double of the season against Vanderbilt with a 20-point, 10-rebound performance, continuing to prove he’s one of the most impactful big men in the league.

“During the draft process, there were questions about my offense,” Chinyelu said. “But I just go out there, enjoy the game, and get better every day.”

Condon has been steady as well, averaging 8.3 rebounds and coming off a 16-point, eight-rebound game of his own.

Florida’s dominance on the boards isn’t just about padding stats-it’s about creating extra possessions, wearing down opponents, and setting the tone physically. Expect the Gators to lean into that advantage again Tuesday.

3. Clean up the turnovers

For all their strengths, the Gators haven’t exactly been careful with the basketball. Florida enters the matchup with the worst turnover margin in the SEC (-1.33), and it’s been a recurring issue in tight games.

Against Vanderbilt, they coughed it up 10 times while forcing just four turnovers-a minus-6 differential that led to a five-point edge in points off turnovers for the Commodores. The Oklahoma game wasn’t much better, with Florida again on the wrong side of the turnover battle.

LSU hasn’t been great in this department either. Even in their win over Missouri, the Tigers posted a minus-5 turnover margin. Six different LSU players are averaging at least one turnover per game, which opens the door for Florida to capitalize.

Boogie Fland could be the key here. The Arkansas transfer leads Florida with 1.7 steals per game and had four takeaways in the Gators’ win over Tennessee earlier this month. If he can disrupt LSU’s backcourt and create transition opportunities, Florida could build separation early.

Given LSU’s offensive inconsistency, winning the turnover battle could be the difference between a close contest and a comfortable win.

4. Get the bench going

With three straight unranked opponents on deck, Florida has a chance to get its rotation deeper involved-and that starts Tuesday night.

The Gators’ bench has shown flashes, and this is the kind of game where they could get extended run. Isaiah Brown just had his best game of the season on his 20th birthday, pouring in 14 points on 3-of-6 shooting, including a pair of threes. Urban Klavzar has been quietly effective, scoring in double figures in three of his last four games, including a 15-point outing against Tennessee.

“He’s answered the bell,” Golden said of Klavzar. “He’s been fantastic. Just really impacting the game in a positive way.”

Micah Handlogten, however, has hit a bit of a wall. The senior center started the season strong with back-to-back double-doubles but hasn’t reached double figures since mid-December. He was held scoreless in two of the last three games and is looking to regain his early-season form.

Freshmen CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd have seen limited minutes, but a strong showing from the starters could open the door for them to get back into the mix. Ingram hasn’t played more than 10 minutes since the Saint Francis game, and Lloyd has been similarly limited since late December.

If Florida can build a lead, this becomes a valuable opportunity to get the bench some rhythm-and that could pay dividends down the stretch of SEC play.

Bottom line

Florida is in a good spot. They’ve weathered a tough stretch, picked up a marquee win, and now face an LSU team still trying to find its footing.

But this isn’t the time to let up. If the Gators bring their usual energy on the boards, tighten up defensively, and take care of the ball, they’ll be in position to handle business at home-and maybe even build some momentum heading into the heart of the conference schedule.