Florida Basketball Projected as Top Seed but Faces Tough First Matchup

Floridas strong SEC run and marquee wins are reshaping their NCAA Tournament outlook-but key road tests still loom large.

Florida basketball is starting to look like a team no one will want to see come March.

In the latest bracket projection, the Gators land as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, drawing a potential first-round matchup with UNC Wilmington. That’s not just a nod to their record-it’s a reflection of how they’re trending. As we move deeper into February, the Gators are gaining steam at exactly the right time, and that’s when tournament résumés are made or broken.

What’s separating Florida from the pack right now is a combination of strong SEC wins, solid underlying metrics, and an eye test that keeps getting better. While a handful of teams in the conference are still dancing on the bubble, Florida has stepped firmly off it. They’re not just in the field-they’re climbing.

Their latest outing was a loud reminder of what this team is capable of. Hosting Alabama, the Gators didn’t just win-they dominated.

A 100-77 final score tells part of the story, but the way they did it was even more impressive. Alex Condon was the star of the night, pouring in 25 points and earning SEC Player of the Week honors.

He played with confidence and control, showing off the kind of offensive versatility that makes this Gators team dangerous.

Thomas Haugh chipped in with 22 points of his own in another efficient performance, while Rueben Chinyelu made his presence known in the paint with a double-double. Chinyelu didn’t just rack up stats-he impacted the game mentally, too, appearing to get inside the head of Alabama center Charles Bediako. That kind of physical and psychological presence is the kind of edge that shows up big in March.

Still, nothing’s set in stone. Florida’s seeding is far from finalized, and the road ahead includes some serious tests.

Next up is a road trip to face Texas A&M, who currently sits atop the SEC standings with a 7-1 conference record. That’s the kind of matchup that can swing a résumé in a big way-either solidifying a top-four seed or opening the door for movement.

If the Gators keep stacking wins like they have been, there’s every reason to believe they’ll keep climbing. This isn’t just a team with potential-it’s a team that’s starting to realize it.