Brian Kelly is looking at Week 5 a little differently than his CBS Sports colleagues.
The former LSU and Notre Dame coach went with No. 25 Missouri to knock off No.
8 Florida on Saturday in Columbia, breaking from Brian Jones, Aaron Taylor and Rick Neuheisel, who all backed the unbeaten Gators. Kelly made his pick on CBS Sports Network’s Inside College Football and said the moment feels ripe for a shakeup.
"This season, to me, feels like each week a new team shows up," Kelly said. "I think Missouri is ready in this game at home and pulls off the upset against a Florida team that's heavily favored."
Kelly even leaned into the weather angle, saying Missouri would benefit if conditions got colder. "Missouri needs it to drop into the 50s in terms of weather," Kelly said.
"Nice and cool. A cold day."
Saturday’s forecast in Columbia, though, calls for 72 degrees and no chance of rain.
The rest of the panel liked Florida’s profile, especially what the Gators have done on the ground. Jones, Taylor and Neuheisel all pointed to the same thing: Florida’s rushing attack has been rolling. Jones highlighted Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell’s 122-yard day in last week’s 31-24 Bulldogs win, noting it was the first 100-yard game Missouri had allowed this season.
Florida’s own backs have been even more dangerous. Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns, and Duke Clark added 126 yards in a 52-28 win over then-No.
4 Ole Miss. That performance helped fuel the Gators’ reputation as one of the sport’s most complete offenses, with Florida sitting atop college football’s advanced metrics in several categories.
"This team is coming in with Duke Clark and Jadan Baugh, who both went over 100," Jones said. "They had 302 yards rushing versus Ole Miss. I think this Tigers defense is a little stiffer than the Ole Miss version, but I'm going to go with Florida on the road."
Taylor also questioned Missouri’s place in the AP Top 25, pointing to the Tigers’ struggles against ranked opponents. "Going back to 2024, they've been ranked 32 of the 39 weeks, but are only 1-9 against ranked teams in that time," Taylor said.
Neuheisel backed the same road-team logic. "Defenses and run games travel," he said. Alluding to his belief that Florida will deliver on the road.
Still, Missouri has some history on its side. Florida hasn’t won a true road game against a ranked opponent since beating No.
23 Mississippi State 13-6 in 2018, and the Gators have lost three of their last four trips to Columbia. Florida head coach Jon Sumrall brought that up when discussing Missouri’s homecoming atmosphere.
"The last four trips we've gone to Missouri, we've lost three of them," Sumrall said. "So if we think it's going to be a freaking cakewalk, I don't care if it's homecoming or whatever, we're in for a rude awakening."
Neuheisel’s hesitation centered on Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons, though Jones countered with the numbers. Simmons has thrown 11 touchdown passes without an interception, and the Ole Miss transfer went for 295 yards and three scores at Mississippi State. Wide receiver Cayden Lee was right there with him, catching 11 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns.
That passing game could matter even more because Florida’s pass defense ranks 94th nationally. If Missouri wants to justify Kelly’s upset pick, Simmons and Lee may have to do the heavy lifting.
Florida at Missouri kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.
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