Just about nothing in the SEC looked normal in Week 7, and that’s exactly why the conference’s final-record picture got so messy. Auburn walked into Georgia and left with a 27-24 win.
Florida, which had been buried by its own defensive problems, knocked off Texas by the same score. Kentucky kept rolling.
Tennessee flattened Alabama. And suddenly the league’s margin for error got a lot smaller.
That chaos shows up in the way the rest of the season now looks for the conference. A handful of teams are being funneled toward the same landing spot, while a few others are hanging somewhere between surprise contender and total mess.
Alabama’s 26-10 loss to Tennessee made the Crimson Tide the week’s biggest disappointment. The offense never found itself, and the road trip to LSU now looks more dangerous than promising. Still, the projection holds Alabama at 9-3.
Georgia, despite the ugly loss to Auburn, stays in much better shape. The Bulldogs are still pegged at 11-1, though the next stretch matters.
The upcoming bye week comes before what could be the two toughest games left, and the trip to Ole Miss feels like a real toss-up. Kirby Smart is not expected to see a repeat of last week’s mistake-filled mess.
Tennessee’s dominant showing over Alabama changes the tone around the Vols in a big way. An 11-1 finish is still on the table, but the projection lands at 10-2 with LSU and Kentucky still ahead. That road game this weekend carries extra weight.
Ole Miss also looks like a team that benefited from the latest round of results. The Rebels beat Missouri 31-3 and now get a schedule that suddenly seems more manageable.
Texas is stumbling, Georgia looks more vulnerable, and if Ole Miss can split one of those remaining marquee games, the CFP path opens up fast. The Rebels are projected at 9-3.
Kentucky keeps stacking wins, and the Wildcats are now in the actual CFP conversation. They beat Oklahoma 21-13 and are sitting at 6-1, with a 9-3 finish projected.
The schedule still has teeth, though. After Vanderbilt and an off week, the final four opponents - Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, and Louisville - will decide whether this becomes a very good season or something more memorable.
Florida’s 27-24 win over Texas pushed the Gators to 5-2 and back into a more believable range. They’ve been hard to pin down all season, but the projection puts them at 8-4. Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Florida State are viewed as wins, while the Kentucky game could decide whether Florida reaches a ninth victory.
Texas, meanwhile, took another step backward. The Longhorns are 4-2 after the loss to Florida, and the forecast drops them to 8-4. The talent is there for more, but execution has been a problem, and the remaining games with Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri are no gifts.
Auburn’s road upset of Georgia was the gutsiest win of the weekend, but it doesn’t move the Tigers much in the projection. Auburn is still slotted at 6-6. Arkansas and Samford should add wins, but LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Alabama are steep climbs.
LSU’s 31-0 win over Mississippi State got the Tigers back on track, and they’re projected at 9-3. The expectation is that LSU drops one of the big games still left - Alabama, Texas at home, or Tennessee on the road - while handling the rest.
Missouri’s 31-3 loss to Ole Miss makes the Tigers tricky to sort through, but the projection lands at 8-4. The November stretch could swing things either way, especially with Texas and Georgia on the road in back-to-back games. Still, home games against Kentucky and Oklahoma could provide a late cushion.
Mississippi State, beaten 31-0 by LSU, is projected at 7-5. Injury issues made for a difficult week, and depth could become a real problem with Oklahoma and Texas next. November looks more favorable, and the Egg Bowl closes the year.
Oklahoma dropped to Kentucky and is projected at 6-6. The defense has been gritty, but John Mateer “is as lost as a quarterback can be.”
There’s still a wide range of outcomes, with home games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, plus road trips to Mississippi State, Florida, and Missouri. For now, wins over South Carolina, A&M, and State are the best guess.
South Carolina, off this week, is also projected at 6-6. The Gamecocks are described as flawed but capable of causing problems on any given day.
Tennessee and Georgia at home are tough asks, but Arkansas and Oklahoma on the road offer chances, and Clemson is not seen as intimidating. This week’s game against Tennessee could shift the season upward in a hurry.
Arkansas got a much-needed 31-21 road win over Vanderbilt, but the projection still has the Razorbacks at 3-9. South Carolina at home appears to be the best remaining chance at another victory.
Texas A&M beat Citadel 41-0, but the Aggies are still projected to finish 5-7. The season may come down to the final two games at Oklahoma and at home against Texas, and as things stand they need more life just to get to six wins.
Vanderbilt, after losing 31-21 at home to Arkansas, is projected at 3-9. That result was enough to leave the Commodores with very little to say.
In Other News...
Jon Sumralls Late-Game Mindset Said Everything About Florida Vs Texas
Late in the fourth quarter against Texas, Jon Sumrall made it clear he was thinking the same way plenty of aggressive coaches do in a tight game: he wanted the first down, not the safer kick. The Florida coachs mindset fit the moment, with the Gators trying to finish off a victory and trusting the offense to make one more play instead of settling for points and handing the outcome back to the Longhorns.
On the critical third down, Tramell Jones answered with a nine-yard run that sealed it, removing the need for any debate about a field goal or a fourth-down call. Still, the whole sequence said a lot about how Florida viewed the end of the game, and it leaves the interesting question of what Sumrall would have done if Jones had been stopped short. [Read more 🡒]
Billy Napier Is Suddenly Back In A Job Florida Fans Know Well
Marylands coaching search is officially underway after the school moved on from Mike Locksley following an eight-season run and a 2-5 start, and one familiar name is already floating into the conversation. Athletic director James Smith now has to find the next leader for a program looking for a reset, and former Florida coach Billy Napier is among the candidates being mentioned.
Napier, of course, is a name Gators fans know well from his time in Gainesville, where the spotlight and pressure came fast. He is currently at James Madison and has the Dukes off to a 7-0 start, which only adds intrigue to any job talk surrounding him. For Florida fans, it is another reminder that Napiers career remains very much in motion, even if the next step is still unclear. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Defense Finally Showed An Edge With Georgia Looming
Floridas defense had been under fire for looking too cautious under coordinator Brad White, especially when explosive plays started piling up against it. Against Texas, though, the Gators looked far more willing to take chances, leaning into pressure and forcing Arch Manning to deal with a much different look than the one opponents had seen earlier in the season.
The shift was noticeable enough to raise the bigger question now hanging over Florida: was that just a one-game adjustment, or the start of a real change in how this defense wants to operate? With Georgia coming up, the Gators have a chance to show whether the more aggressive approach can hold up against a deeper, more punishing offense. [Read more 🡒]