Zach Hyman’s next deal may not be the bargain the Oilers got in 2021, but it could still be a smart one.
When Edmonton signed Hyman in July 2021, plenty of people outside the market treated it like a mistake waiting to happen. The money looked rich, the term looked long, and the worry was that the back end would turn ugly.
Instead, the seven-year contract at $5.5 million per year has become one of the best bets the franchise has ever made. Hyman has grown into the greatest free-agent signing in Oilers history.
The numbers tell the story. In five seasons with Edmonton, he has piled up 175 goals and 310 points in 366 regular-season games.
In the playoffs, his scoring has climbed even higher: 37 goals and 62 points in 74 games, along with a relentless physical edge. He has already posted a 50-goal season, two 30-goal seasons and two 20-goal seasons, including 31 goals in 58 games last season.
And as Jason Gregor wrote earlier this week, there’s no sign he’s slowing down.
That’s why July 1, 2027 matters. Hyman will be eligible for an extension then, and he’ll be 36 when the new contract begins. The question is what kind of number makes sense for a player who has been so valuable, but is also heading into the later stage of his career.
A few recent contracts for productive top-six wingers offer a useful guide.
Jordan Eberle signed a two-year, $11 million extension with a $5.5 million cap hit. The 36-year-old former Oilers winger is about to start that deal, which gives him a 16 per cent raise over his previous $4.75 million annual salary.
That sort of short-term bump is the basic framework Edmonton should be looking at with Hyman, though a raise in the 20-25 per cent range may be more realistic because of the rising cap. That would put Hyman around $6.5 million per year.
If the deal stretches to three years, a cap hit in the six-million range becomes even more plausible.
Anze Kopitar’s most recent extension is another clean comparison. He signed a two-year, $14 million deal with a $7 million cap hit in July 2023, starting in his age-36 season.
In the three seasons before that contract, Kopitar produced at 0.83 points per game, almost exactly in line with Hyman’s 0.82 points per game over his last three seasons. It was a short-term deal for a franchise cornerstone nearing the end, and that’s the kind of territory Hyman could land in as well.
Patrick Kane may be the closest match of the bunch. Chicago gave him a two-year, $16 million deal with an $8 million cap hit.
Over the last three seasons, Kane has scored at a 0.86 points-per-game clip, very close to Hyman’s production. Even at nearly 38, Kane still commanded a major commitment, and that may be the best template for what Hyman’s next contract looks like.
The cap picture matters too. Hyman’s current contract takes up 6.75 per cent of Edmonton’s cap. With the cap at $104 million now, and projected to be as low as $113.5 million and as high as $123 million by the time the 2028-29 season arrives, an $8 million annual salary would land in the 6.5 to 7 per cent range of team cap usage.
Given how much NHL salaries have climbed in recent months, Hyman could make a case for more than the comparables suggest, especially if his production holds steady. But when the rising cap, the comparable deals, and the mutual appreciation between player, city and team are all factored in, the fair landing spot looks pretty clear: either a three-year deal in the $6 million to $6.5 million range, or a two-year deal in the $7.5 million to $8 million range.
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