The Isaac Howard trade still looks like a win for the Oilers.
When Edmonton general manager pulled the trigger last summer and sent former first-round pick and Memorial Cup champion Sam O'Reilly to Tampa Bay for NCAA standout Isaac Howard, plenty of people saw it as a steal. On paper, it was easy to understand why. Howard was viewed as a player with the kind of upside that could land him in a top-six complementary winger role, while O'Reilly projected more as a defensively reliable bottom-six forward with third-line center potential at his peak.
A year later, the debate has shifted some, but the conclusion in this case remains the same: Edmonton still looks like the winner.
O'Reilly’s stock got a boost over the last season. He was moved at the 2026 OHL trade deadline from the London Knights to the Kitchener Rangers, then became a major piece of Kitchener’s Memorial Cup run.
He took home the tournament’s MVP award and also won the OHL’s most outstanding player of the year award. By the end of his junior career, he had two Memorial Cups and three OHL championships on his resume.
Howard’s first full pro season was more uneven at the NHL level. Under former head coach Kris Knoblauch, he had trouble carving out a role and finished with 29 NHL games, two goals, three assists and five points.
But the Bakersfield Condors version of Howard looked far more like the player Edmonton hoped it was getting. In 47 games with the Oilers’ AHL affiliate, he put up 50 points, including 24 goals and 26 assists.
Howard is two years older to the day, and that matters when you look at where both players are in their development. The expectation is that he could make the jump this upcoming season and step into a potentially meaningful top-nine role right away. O'Reilly, by contrast, still has more runway and may need a year or more in the AHL to get used to the pace and demands of pro hockey.
That’s why the Oilers still get the edge here. O'Reilly may be the safer bet, the player whose path to his ceiling feels more straightforward.
Howard brings more volatility, but also more offensive upside. For now, though, the fact remains that Howard has already shown he can score at a high level in a professional league, while O'Reilly still has to prove himself at that level.
It may end up being a deal that works for both sides. But if the question is who should feel better about the trade right now, Edmonton still has the stronger case.
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