When it comes to Oilers prospects, draft-year NHLE can be useful for spotting the players who are already hinting at a role before they’ve even had a real shot at pro minutes. It’s not a crystal ball, and it doesn’t need to be. It can still tell you a lot.
The big names tend to make that point for you. Connor McDavid, Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard all had - or are having - long NHL careers, and nobody needed draft-day NHLE to know those guys were headed somewhere special. Jordan Eberle, too, was clearly valued well beyond 27 NHLE at the time.
Where the metric gets interesting is in the middle ground, especially with teenagers. Reid Schaefer was a first-round pick, but his NHLE pointed toward a future as a middle-six winger rather than a top-line force. That’s the kind of read this tool can offer.
It didn’t give a clean look at Dylan Holloway, though. His numbers were dragged down by limited playing time, and NCAA freshmen are traditionally faded in that way.
Xavier Bourgault didn’t pan out, even if the talent was there. Jesse Puljujarvi’s NHLE, meanwhile, turned out to be right on the money - we just didn’t want to believe it.
Looking at the current crop, Ike Howard stands out as an above-average prospect with a draft-year NHLE of 30 points. That’s a solid number, but not a guarantee of success.
Matt Savoie’s draft NHLE was 34 points, putting Howard in that same neighborhood. Savoie’s rookie-season projection, using reasonable expectations, was .50 points per game, and he finished at .45 points per game.
That was a clean hit.
Howard’s case is a little murkier because playing time figures to be fluid under a new coach. That doesn’t make him a negative story, just a different one than Savoie had a year ago.
The rest of the group - Quinn Hutson at 20 NHLE, Josh Samanski at 10, Tommy Lareniere at 20, and the others - look like players who are either headed for the NHL as complementary offensive pieces or may not make it at all. The ones who do stick will need enough value in the other parts of the game to earn their roster spot.
The old 1992-93 Cape Breton Oilers also serve as a reminder that scoring numbers at one level don’t always tell the full story. Dan Currie piled up 223 AHL goals by age 24, while Kirk Maltby went on to play 1,072 NHL games. Their draft-day NHLEs were 17 for Currie and 38 for Maltby.
That brings the focus to age and development, which is why William Nicholl is worth watching in Bakersfield this winter. He’s 20, had an NHLE of 8 in his draft year, and has since emerged as a real NHL prospect after Edmonton’s draft-and-follow selection of him in 2024. Nicholl is a player of interest.
On The Lowdown today, the feature guest is Kevin McCurdy. The show will cover the Oilers roster, possible tweaks, and the fallout from the Leo Carlsson offer sheet. It runs noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
In Other News...
Oilers Face A Costly Top Six Decision They Can't Delay
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The names that keep surfacing point to the same kind of player Edmonton is after: a winger who can score and fit into a contenders top six without disrupting the rest of the lineup. With the free-agent path looking thin, the real question is whether the Oilers want to wait for the trade deadline dance or get aggressive before the asking price and the competition both climb. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Still Have One Roster Problem Fans Wont Ignore
The Oilers have room to maneuver, and that alone keeps the conversation around their roster from settling down anytime soon. With salary cap space available and a few defensive additions already in place, Edmonton has at least given itself options as it tries to round out a team that still looks a little light on the blue line after moving Darnell Nurse.
The bigger question is how the club balances those options at the start of the season, especially with a three-goalie plan hanging over the roster picture. There is a path for Edmonton to keep adjusting as the year goes on, and the cap flexibility gives it some breathing room if the front office decides the current mix still needs another jolt before the trade deadline. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Blue Line Squeeze Could Force A Move Fans Saw Coming
The Oilers have spent the summer building depth on the blue line, but the math is starting to get awkward. After a run of trades and signings, Edmonton now has eight defensemen making $1.3 million or more, and it is hard to imagine the club carrying all of them when the season opens. For a team that has spent years trying to stabilize its back end, this is the kind of surplus that can look like a luxury right up until it turns into a roster decision.
What makes the situation interesting is that the likely move does not appear to involve one of the more established names. Edmontons choice seems to be narrowing around a pair of younger defensemen, with handedness and recent usage both part of the equation. One option has the cleaner fit on paper, while the other spent more time on the outside looking in, and the Oilers now have to decide whether they want to keep the extra insurance or turn that depth into something else before camp sorts it out for them. [Read more 🡒]