Connor McDavid’s next deal is shaping up to be the kind of number that resets the NHL’s ceiling.
That’s the backdrop after Macklin Celebrini signed a five-year contract worth $18.8 million per season on July 29, making the San Jose Sharks star the league’s highest-paid player. It may not last long. Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche and Quinn Hughes of the Minnesota Wild are both due for new deals by the end of 2026-27, and it wouldn’t be a shock if one or both push past the $20 million-per-year mark.
All of that only sharpens the question hanging over Edmonton: what does Connor McDavid get when his current contract runs out after 2027-28?
The salary cap is climbing fast, and it could climb even faster by the time McDavid is eligible for his next contract. The NHL has already projected the cap to rise from $95.5 million in 2025-26 to $113.5 million in 2027-28. The next NHL-NHLPA agreement is expected to push it higher still by 2028-29, when McDavid’s next deal would begin.
That opens the door to a staggering payday. McDavid could be looking at somewhere in the $25 million to $30 million range per season, though that kind of money would likely require the cap to reach at least $125 million in 2028-29. Whether he stays with the Oilers is still to be determined, but the $12.5 million annual deal he signed before last season already looks like one of the great bargains in league history.
His value to Edmonton is hard to overstate. When the Oilers won the 2015 NHL draft lottery on April 18, 2015 and moved into position to draft him, the franchise was worth about $455 million. Today, that figure is $3.2 billion, and McDavid’s popularity has played a major role in that rise.
That naturally leads to the bigger comparison: what is McDavid actually worth in a sports market where hockey salaries lag far behind the biggest paydays elsewhere? Cristiano Ronaldo makes $235 million per season with Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League, while Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023. Against that backdrop, McDavid’s next number could look massive by NHL standards and modest by global sports standards at the same time.
For Edmonton, the challenge is obvious. Can the Oilers pay McDavid at or above $25 million a year and still keep a contender around him?
That answer depends heavily on how much the cap rises in 2028-29. Right now, the window is open for the next two seasons.
After that, an aging core and rising salaries could make things much tougher.
There’s also a broader conversation bubbling up around how NHL stars are compensated. The source points to contract structures that can allow players to become part-owners, noting Mario Lemieux’s special arrangement with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Lemieux was owed $32 million when the team was in bankruptcy proceedings in 1998, and he later turned that into $350 million when the Penguins were sold to the Fenway Group in 2021. That raises the question of whether the league should explore profit sharing for players like McDavid.
For now, Oilers owner Daryl Katz would almost certainly like to keep McDavid in Edmonton for life. But that won’t come cheap, and another hometown discount seems unlikely this time. McDavid also has the leverage of the market and the NHLPA behind him, especially if his next contract is going to set the bar for everyone else.
He may wait to see how this season - and possibly the next - unfolds before making any final call. If Edmonton gets back to the Stanley Cup final this season, that could change the conversation. Either way, with record-setting contracts flying around this offseason, McDavid’s price keeps moving up.
In Other News...
Bowman Says The Oilers Are Set But Bakersfield Looms Large
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He has led the Oilers in fights and come out on top in several of the more notable ones, including bouts with Peyton Krebs and Anthony Cirelli. And he has not been alone in adding some bite to the lineup, with Connor Murphy and Connor Clattenburg also dropping the gloves more than once, giving Edmonton a physical presence that has become part of the conversation around this group. [Read more 🡒]
Russian Stars Absence Leaves International Hockey Facing Unseen Cost
The International Ice Hockey Federations decision to keep Russia out of major tournaments is reverberating well beyond the bracket sheets, with the ban now set to cover the 2027 Mens World Championship, the 2027 World Junior Championship and the upcoming U18 mens and womens events. The move came after Russias hockey organization sought a fresh review, but the federation stood by its earlier call, citing safety, security and sporting integrity concerns.
For a sport that still prides itself on global competition, the absence of Russian teams leaves a visible hole in events that shape the next wave of stars and establish the pecking order among hockey powers. The on-ice consequences are obvious, but the larger question lingers too: how long can international hockey keep drawing its lines this way before the political backdrop starts changing the game itself? [Read more 🡒]