The Penguins and Oilers are making the kind of long-term bets that can look smart in theory and brutal in practice. Pittsburgh just committed eight years and a $4 million AAV to Ville Koivunen, while Edmonton went eight years and $3.85 million a year on Trent Frederic.
Same basic structure. Very different levels of certainty.
That’s the heart of the comparison: both teams are betting term over immediate proof, hoping a rising salary cap will make the deal look lighter over time. But the risk attached to each move isn’t the same.
Frederic arrived in Edmonton with an NHL résumé already in place. Koivunen, on the other hand, is still a mystery in the NHL.
Frederic’s track record is straightforward. He was an established fourth-line, energy-type forward, with a career-high 40 points once and no 20-goal season.
The Oilers knew what they were buying when they locked him in before he could reach unrestricted free agency. Stan Bowman even framed the move as a bet on a player who brings more than points, calling him a “unicorn” and later describing him as a “very unique player” with an “intimidation factor.”
Pittsburgh’s situation is different because Koivunen hasn’t established that kind of baseline yet. He has 7 points in 39 NHL games, but he also produced 41 points in 34 AHL games.
Kyle Dubas is making the move now, before Koivunen can force the price higher, and Josh Yohe of The Athletic wrote, “I was told that Dubas sees the Koivunen deal as “low risk, high reward.” Which is to say, the cap is rising to the point that he’s willing to risk losing $4 million annually for eight years if Koivunen is a bust.”
That’s where the contrast sharpens. Edmonton’s gamble was on a player the team already understood, even if the upside case was always more about role and identity than scoring.
Pittsburgh’s is more of a lottery ticket. The Penguins aren’t paying for a known bottom-six piece.
They’re paying to secure upside before the league gets another look at him.
So while the contracts look similar on paper - eight years, modest AAV, middle-six value hopes - the danger is not identical. Frederic’s deal was quickly viewed as one of the worst of the 2025 offseason because the floor was already visible, and it hasn’t looked better early on. He’s been used in bottom-six minutes and, by the source’s account, has been the least impactful player in Edmonton’s lineup so far.
The Penguins are hoping Koivunen doesn’t become that kind of cautionary tale. They may have spent $32 million on a player who still has to prove he’s worth it, but unlike Edmonton, they’re not paying for a known ceiling.
The Oilers already know the downside. That’s what makes their bet look rougher right now.
In Other News...
Former Oilers Blueliner Is Still Fighting For His NHL Future
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For Edmonton, Benning is the most relevant of that bunch, since the former Oilers blueliner is still trying to extend his NHL future. The article notes that Toronto is not expected to make another move before next season, which only tightens the path for players on the outside looking in, and Bennings case now sits alongside a few other familiar names whose recent performances will have to persuade another club that they still belong. [Read more 🡒]
Six Current Oilers Share A Forgotten Hlinka Gretzky Cup Connection
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Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor Murphy and Evan Bouchard are among the six Oilers with that connection, and each one has a different piece of Hlinka Gretzky history attached to his path. The tournament has been a useful early marker for NHL talent for years, and Edmontons current roster quietly reflects how often that stage has overlapped with eventual big-league success. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Still Have One Obvious Fit If Vancouver Changes Course
Brock Boesers name has resurfaced in trade chatter after a summer extension and a round of organizational change in Vancouver, where the Canucks now appear to be weighing ways to trim payroll. Boesers no-movement clause gives him control, but if both sides find common ground, the conversation could shift quickly around a player who has long been viewed as one of the more recognizable pieces in the market.
For Edmonton, the fit is easy to see if Vancouver ever decides to move on. The Oilers are one of the teams that would naturally circle such a scenario, even with Ottawa and Philadelphia also mentioned as possible destinations, because a player of Boesers profile would instantly become one of the more interesting names available. For now, though, it remains a question of whether Vancouver truly changes course and whether the market ever gets the chance to react. [Read more 🡒]