Training camp is here, and with it comes another look at one of the Edmonton Oilers’ most familiar faces: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
He’s not the flashiest name in the lineup, but he’s been a constant for a long time. Nugent-Hopkins is headed into his 16th NHL season with 1,031 games already on the resume.
The 2011 first-overall pick has built a reputation as a steady 20-goal threat and a dependable 50-point producer, with seven 20-goal seasons and at least 18 goals in 11 different years. In Edmonton, he’s also seen just about everything, and Mike Babcock will be his 10th different head coach with the club.
Last season was solid, if not special. Nugent-Hopkins finished with 20 goals and 56 points in 72 games, but his minus-9 was tied for the eighth-worst mark on the team.
That said, the players below him on that list were mostly defencemen or regular bottom-six forwards. Most of his time came on the top line with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, a trio that logged 388:57 together at 5-on-5, easily the most-used combination.
What Nugent-Hopkins has always brought is brains. He finds the right spots, reads the game well on both sides of the puck, and has held his level even as he’s gotten older. He still has three years left on his deal at a $5.125 million cap hit, which keeps him in a very manageable range for a player with his track record.
The question now is whether Edmonton asks him to do a little less.
At 33, Nugent-Hopkins could benefit from a smaller workload. He started his NHL career as a center, shifted to the wing, and can still handle both spots, but the winger role feels like the better fit at this stage.
The Oilers have more options now, too. With Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie making noise and rookie Isaac Howard pushing to get into the top six, there’s a path for Edmonton to spread out the scoring and build three lines that can threaten.
That same thinking could reach the power play. Nugent-Hopkins has been a regular on the top unit for years, but the Oilers may want to shuffle that setup and open the door for others. Podkolzin, Savoie, and Howard are all candidates to give that group a different look.
The ideal season for Nugent-Hopkins is simple: keep being dependable. If he can still give Edmonton 20 goals and 60 points, that’s a strong year, whether he’s in the top six or not.
But the even-strength production has to climb. He finished fourth on the team in points, yet only ninth in even-strength scoring.
Nugent-Hopkins had 29 power-play points and 26 at even strength, with 11 power-play goals and only nine at five-on-five. In recent years, he’s leaned heavily on special teams.
If his power-play usage dips, he’ll need to do more at even strength. A target of 13 even-strength goals and 40 even-strength points would be a good benchmark.
He also remains an important penalty killer. Nugent-Hopkins was third among Oilers forwards in shorthanded ice time last season, behind Savoie and Adam Henrique.
Henrique is gone, and Jason Dickinson was added at the trade deadline to take on those minutes. Nugent-Hopkins logged 97:15 on the kill, his lowest total since 2015-16, and Edmonton would probably like to see that number rise to around 110 minutes.
The tricky part is that the worst-case scenario might not be a demotion.
For Nugent-Hopkins, staying in the top six could actually create the biggest problem if it leaves the third line thin. If he’s not available to stabilize that group, the depth line could end up as Dickinson, Trent Frederic, and Kasperi Kapanen.
That would put a lot on Kapanen, since Dickinson and Frederic are not known as play drivers. The Oilers need offense lower in the lineup, and Nugent-Hopkins could help supply it while also handling a shutdown role with Dickinson.
So the path forward is pretty clear. Nugent-Hopkins needs better five-on-five numbers, more even-strength impact, and another season where his versatility helps Edmonton instead of carrying too much of the burden. If that happens, the Oilers will be in good shape with one of their longest-serving players still doing the job.
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Why Oilers Made Their Most Controversial Bet Of The Offseason
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Edmontons bet seems to be rooted in what he can still offer on the ice, with speed and a role on the penalty kill giving him a path to meaningful minutes if he earns them. But any upside he brings will be weighed against the controversy surrounding his past involvement in the 2018 Hockey Canada sexual assault case, and the reaction to the signing shows the Oilers are taking on far more than a simple depth move. [Read more 🡒]