Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV already looks like a bargain, and the NHL’s rising salary cap is only going to make that deal shine brighter.
That’s the big takeaway as the league heads into a new financial era, one where the cap is expected to climb by $7 million to $10 million per season. The money is moving fast, and so are the contracts.
Draisaitl’s eight-year extension has only been in place for one season, but he has already slipped to fourth on the league’s AAV list. Over the next year, that number is going to keep dropping.
The next wave of deals could push him even further down. By 2027-28, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Nikita Kucherov and Jason Robertson are all expected to be on new contracts, and the source material says those deals will likely come in above $14 million AAV. Add Macklin Celebrini’s $18.8 million contract into the mix, and Draisaitl would fall to ninth among the NHL’s highest-paid contracts.
Connor McDavid’s situation is just as striking. By the time he reaches the final year of his current deal, the highest he would sit on the board is 13th.
That kind of movement tells the whole story. In a cap environment that keeps inflating, the smartest move for teams is to lock up their young players for max term whenever they can.
The logic is simple: if a player is showing real promise, pay now and secure the years. The article points to Evan Bouchard as the kind of case that drives the point home.
Before the 2023-24 season, Edmonton could have tried to get him on a long-term deal after his second straight 40-point season. Even at $7 million per year, that would have been $3.1 million more than his bridge deal, but it would now look like one of the best value contracts in the league.
He also wouldn’t even be halfway through the extension.
That said, the Oilers were working in a flat-cap world and were boxed in by other difficult contracts, so that path likely wasn’t there. Still, the lesson matters now, especially with a player like Matt Savoie. The message is straightforward: sign him now and live with the value for years.
The changing cap landscape also underscores how much player leverage has shifted. A few years ago, a young star like Celebrini would have been forced into a choice between a shorter deal that got him to free agency or a long-term contract built around security. Under the old setup, he likely would have had to take the full eight-year term to land that record-setting $18.8 million AAV.
Instead, he gets both. Celebrini will make $94 million over five years, and when that deal ends, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent at 26.
Six years from now, the salary cap could be near $150 million, which would put the maximum AAV at $30 million. A seven-year deal at that max would be worth more than $200 million, and the source says Celebrini would absolutely be able to get it if he wanted to.
That’s where the league is headed. Only eight NHL contracts in history have crossed the $100 million mark, but the article says there’s a real chance a deal worth twice that arrives within the next decade.
The cap spike will also keep pressure on stars to follow the path of Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby: take less so management can build a stronger roster around them. At the same time, more players may choose shorter-term deals, since the money is already life-changing and they can still bet on themselves without locking in for the long haul.
There’s another shift coming, too. Once the cap climbs past $130 million, the league’s financial split between haves and have-nots could start to show again.
Right now, almost every team can spend to the ceiling if it wants. That won’t always be true.
Canadian teams, in particular, could run into trouble, because players are paid in USD and internal caps may become a bigger part of the conversation. The Winnipeg Jets are used as an example.
They were able to pay market value for Connor Hellebuyck, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, with Connor’s $12 million AAV the highest of the group. But six years from now, a winger with 40-plus goal potential might command around $20 million.
That kind of number could push a team like Winnipeg out of the race.
Smaller markets south of the border could face the same squeeze. That might chip away at parity, and it could also lead to big-market teams handing out some ugly contracts.
But it should also make free agency more interesting again. The article expects more big names to hit the market over the next four to six years simply because their next deal may be out of reach for their current club.
And then there’s McDavid. His next move looms over all of it.
Does he chase a deal north of $20 million on a long-term commitment, or does he keep taking less on shorter contracts? That decision is still ahead, but the article notes there’s a world where he makes it within the next 12 months.
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