Back in December, the Edmonton Oilers made a bold move to address their goaltending issues, acquiring veteran netminder Tristan Jarry from the Pittsburgh Penguins. It was a deal that had been brewing for some time, and when it finally happened, it made a lot of sense for both sides. The Oilers were desperate for stability between the pipes, and the Penguins were ready to shake things up.
General Manager Stan Bowman decided it was time to break up the struggling tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. The Oilers' goaltending had been a sore spot all season, and Bowman opted to bring in Jarry-a goalie with a checkered reputation, sure, but also a proven NHL starter with nearly a decade of experience under his belt. Jarry’s résumé includes All-Star appearances and stretches of elite play, even if consistency has sometimes eluded him.
But just three games into his stint with the Oilers, Jarry went down with an injury. And when he returned, his performances were uneven.
That gave Penguins fans a chance to celebrate early, declaring their team the clear winner of the trade. But let’s pump the brakes on that kind of talk.
This trade is far from settled.
Trying to declare a winner in a goalie swap just weeks after it happens is like calling a game after the first period. Between Jarry and Skinner, we’re still dealing with small sample sizes, and the full picture is far from clear.
Plus, the Penguins picked up defenseman Brett Kulak in the deal as well, and with the trade deadline still looming on March 6, there’s a chance Pittsburgh could flip one or both of those assets for something else. The ripple effects of this trade may not be fully felt for a while.
That said, we can look at what’s happened so far.
Between December 12 and January 25, Skinner was clearly outperforming Jarry. In that stretch, Skinner posted a 7-4-1 record with a .906 save percentage and an impressive 11.54 goals saved above expected (GSAx), according to Evolving-Hockey. Jarry, meanwhile, went 5-2-1 but with a much shakier .879 save percentage and just 0.64 GSAx.
Since then, both goalies have cooled off-and in Skinner’s case, the dip has been more pronounced. Over their last three games, Skinner has a 2-0-1 record, while Jarry sits at 1-2-0.
But the deeper numbers tell a different story. Jarry posted a .846 save percentage with 0.57 goals saved above average (GSAA) and a -0.93 GSAx.
Skinner, on the other hand, had a .832 save percentage, a -0.57 GSAA, and a -2.06 GSAx.
In other words, neither goalie has been lights-out lately, but Jarry’s underlying metrics suggest he’s been slightly more effective, even if the box score doesn’t show it.
And when you zoom out to look at even-strength play since Jarry’s return from injury, the case for him gets stronger. Over eight games, Jarry has a 2.71 GSAx and a 0.71 GSAA.
Skinner, in six games since January 13, has managed just a 0.95 GSAx and a -0.71 GSAA. That’s not a massive gap, but it’s notable-especially when you factor in the Oilers’ defensive struggles and penalty kill woes, which haven’t exactly made life easy for Jarry.
Goaltending is a tricky business. A hot or cold week can swing the numbers wildly, and context matters-a lot.
Jarry’s been playing behind a defense that’s still finding its rhythm, and that’s going to skew some of his stats. But when you dig into the advanced metrics, there are signs he’s holding up better than it might appear on the surface.
Still, it’s way too early to call this trade a win or loss for either team. It could take years before we know who really came out ahead.
Maybe the Penguins flip Skinner or Kulak for a key piece at the deadline. Maybe Jarry finds his groove in Edmonton and becomes the stabilizing force the Oilers have been missing in net.
For now, it’s a waiting game. And if the Oilers make a deep playoff run-or even lift the Stanley Cup-this trade will look like a masterstroke, no matter what the numbers say today.