Oilers’ Defensive Struggles Put Spotlight on Ristolainen Ahead of Deadline
The Edmonton Oilers are no strangers to offensive firepower, but this season, it’s their defensive play that’s raising eyebrows - and not in a good way. No matter who’s in net, the Oilers just can’t seem to keep pucks out.
The root of the issue? A glaring uptick in high-danger chances allowed during five-on-five play.
So far this season, Edmonton has surrendered 555 high-danger scoring chances - a troubling number considering where they’ve been in recent years. For context, they allowed just 643 such chances last season, ranking fourth-best in the league.
The year before that? 671, good for sixth-best.
That kind of defensive structure helped carry them to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons. This year, though, that structure has taken a serious hit.
The chatter around the Oilers heading into the March 6 trade deadline has largely centered on adding a scoring winger. But if you’ve been watching this team closely, it’s clear that shoring up the blue line might be the more pressing need. Enter Rasmus Ristolainen.
Why Ristolainen Makes Sense for Edmonton
The Flyers aren’t actively shopping Ristolainen, but they are listening. And while the 31-year-old right-shot defenseman hasn’t drawn significant interest just yet, he’s still a name to watch as the deadline approaches.
Drafted eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres in 2013, Ristolainen came into the league known more for his offensive upside than his defensive reliability. From 2015 through 2019, he posted four straight 40-plus point seasons - but he was a defensive liability more often than not.
That’s changed in Philadelphia. Under John Tortorella, Ristolainen has rounded out his game and become a much more dependable presence on the back end.
In 2023-24, the Flyers controlled 56.19% of expected goals with him on the ice at five-on-five, while also outshooting their opponents. The trend continued into 2024-25, with a 51.33% expected goal share, even though they were slightly outshot.
One of the more encouraging signs? Ristolainen’s impact on high-danger chances.
Before joining the Flyers, his teams consistently gave up more quality looks than they generated when he was on the ice. But since 2022-23, that’s flipped.
The Flyers have generated 526 high-danger chances while giving up 464 with Ristolainen on the ice - a solid 53.1% share.
He’s missed significant time this year and last, but when healthy, he’s shown he can be a steadying force. In 63 games since the start of 2023-24, he’s chipped in five goals and 20 points - modest totals, but not insignificant for a defense-first role.
In Edmonton, Ristolainen could be a natural fit alongside Darnell Nurse on the second pairing, allowing Jake Walman to slide down and anchor the third pair with one of Spencer Stastney, Ty Emberson, or Alec Regula. That kind of depth could go a long way in tightening up the Oilers' defensive play.
The Cap Crunch: Making the Money Work
Of course, no NHL trade talk is complete without a look at the cap sheet. Ristolainen carries a $5.1 million cap hit through the 2026-27 season - not an easy contract to take on for a team already pressed against the ceiling.
The Flyers are reportedly open to retaining salary, which would bring that number down to $2.55 million. But even then, Edmonton would need to make some moves. With Adam Henrique set to return from LTIR, the Oilers are projected to be about $1.77 million over the cap.
One possible solution? Moving Andrew Mangiapane and his $3.6 million cap hit.
That would free up enough space - roughly $1.83 million - to make a Ristolainen deal feasible, assuming 50% retention. Edmonton might also need to send a player like Alec Regula (on a league-minimum deal) down to further balance the books.
It’s a tight squeeze, but the math can work - if the Oilers are willing to make the necessary moves.
What Would It Cost?
That’s the big question. According to reports, the Flyers are looking for a return similar to the package Montréal received for Ben Chiarot in 2022. That deal saw the Panthers send an unprotected first-round pick, a fourth-rounder, and prospect Ty Smilanic (a recent third-round pick) to the Canadiens for a rental with 50% salary retention.
The key difference here? Ristolainen isn’t a rental.
He’s signed for two more seasons beyond this one, which could justify a slightly higher asking price. Edmonton still holds its 2027 first-round pick and a 2026 third-rounder, and they’ve got some intriguing AHL prospects that could sweeten the pot.
There’s always risk in giving up a first-rounder - just ask the Panthers, who nearly saw that Chiarot deal backfire when they stumbled the following season. But Edmonton’s window is now. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in their prime and the team knocking on the door in recent years, the time to go all-in might be here.
Ristolainen isn’t a flashy name, and he’s not going to quarterback the power play or put up 50 points. But he brings something the Oilers need: a stabilizing presence on the blue line who can win battles, suppress high-danger chances, and hold his own against tough competition.
If Edmonton wants to make another deep playoff run, adding a player like Ristolainen might be the kind of under-the-radar move that pays off in a big way.