Oilers Fall to Maple Leafs, But February Offers More Than Just Frustration
The Edmonton Oilers dropped a tough one to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night, and for fans in Oil Country, that particular L on the schedule always stings a little more. It wasn’t just the opponent-it was how it happened.
With the game hanging in the balance in the third period, discipline slipped. Matt Savoie took a borderline penalty, and then veteran forward Mattias Janmark followed it up with one that proved costly.
If that sequence felt familiar, it’s because it is. Janmark had a similar moment in the 2023 playoffs-Game 5 against Vegas-when a penalty right after a Philip Broberg infraction turned the tide.
For a veteran, those are the moments you’re expected to avoid. Instead, it became a turning point, and once again, Edmonton paid the price.
The Bigger Picture: February and the Homestand
Now, stepping back from the frustration of one game, there’s more to take away from this recent stretch. An eight-game homestand didn’t yield the kind of dominance fans were hoping for, but that doesn’t mean it was a waste. There’s a clear progression taking shape-goaltending is stabilizing, the defensive pairings are starting to gel, and a third line is beginning to emerge as a real asset.
Losing to Toronto hurts, no doubt. But it doesn’t define the season. In fact, coming out of the Olympic break, this might just be the kind of wake-up call the team needs to sharpen its focus for the stretch run.
Line-by-Line Breakdown
Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Time on Ice: 10:01 | Shots: 5-8 | Expected Goals: 40% | High-Danger Chances: 5-6
This top line has been underwhelming at five-on-five lately, with just two goals for and six against over the last eight games. That’s not the kind of production you expect from a trio featuring Connor McDavid.
Don’t be surprised if head coach Kris Knoblauch starts shuffling things around soon. There’s a case to be made for moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a third-line center role-if you give him real wingers, he can still do damage.
The Oilers may look to the trade market for a new left winger to ride shotgun with McDavid. One name to keep an eye on: Ike Howard.
He’s been lighting it up in Bakersfield with 12 goals in 20 games. It’s a shame he didn’t get a longer look earlier this season.
Podkolzin - Draisaitl - Kapanen
Time on Ice: 8:07 | Shots: 6-1 | Expected Goals: 58% | High-Danger Chances: 1-0
This line has been clicking since December 1, outscoring opponents 9-3 at five-on-five. Leon Draisaitl has taken on a bit of a mentorship role here, and it’s paying off.
The chemistry is real, the puck movement is sharp, and Kapanen’s goal last night was a beauty. When Draisaitl tightens up those risky blue line passes-and he will-this line could be a real weapon in the playoffs.
Samanski - Roslovic - Savoie
Time on Ice: 8:01 | Shots: 4-1 | Goals: 1-1 | Expected Goals: 26% | High-Danger Chances: 1-1
It’s a small sample size-just 28 minutes at five-on-five-but the early returns are intriguing. They’ve outscored opponents 3-2 and are posting a 61% expected goals rate.
Savoie, in particular, is showing signs that he’s arrived as a legit NHL player. Since the end of November, he’s flipped his five-on-five goal differential from 12-18 to 15-14.
That’s progress. If Nugent-Hopkins does slide down the lineup, Savoie’s presence gives the Oilers some flexibility.
As for Samanski, it’s still unclear exactly what he is at the NHL level-but he’s not hurting the team. That’s something.
Mangiapane - Frederic - Janmark
Time on Ice: 5:37 | Shots: 4-8 | Goals: 0-1 | Expected Goals: 22% | High-Danger Chances: 2-4
This line struggled, and Janmark’s penalty only added to the frustration. One head-scratcher: Curtis Lazar was scratched, and unless there’s an injury or illness involved, that decision is tough to justify.
Lazar and Frederic have been a solid duo this season, with a 58% expected goal share over 115 minutes together. They’ve only scored once, but the underlying numbers suggest there’s something worth exploring there.
Frederic looks like he’s starting to find his game-he just needs the right linemates to help him climb out of the hole.
Defense Coming Into Focus
There’s been some heat on the Oilers’ defense lately, but the numbers tell a more optimistic story.
- Ekholm - Bouchard: 55% goal share at five-on-five since December 1. That’s solid.
- Nurse - Walman: Still early days, but they’re even (4-4) in just 95 minutes together since December. Zoom out, and they’re 22-17 over 411 minutes since Walman arrived.
Trending in the right direction.
- Stastney - Emberson: 6-3 goal differential since December 1.
Quietly effective.
Unless a right-handed defenseman becomes available, this group might just be enough to make a serious postseason run. There’s room to upgrade Alec Regula, sure, but overall, this blue line is holding its own.
In net, Connor Ingram stopped 20 of 22 shots at five-on-five (.909 save percentage), and the penalty kill-not the goaltending-was the real issue last night. Janmark’s penalty hurt, but Ingram continues to prove he can be trusted. Don’t be surprised if he starts some playoff games.
The Belief Is Back
Yeah, the loss to Toronto stings. But zoom out, and there’s a lot to like about where this team is headed.
Kris Knoblauch took a little time to get his systems in place, but it’s clicking now. The Oilers are building something, and the pieces are starting to fit.
Down on the Farm: Condors Watch
Keep an eye on Connor Ungar. The undersized goaltender is forcing his way into the conversation with strong performances across both the ECHL and AHL.
The question now is whether the organization is ready to commit to him as a full-time starter in Bakersfield next season. Historically, the Oilers have been hesitant with smaller goalies, but Ungar is doing everything he can to change that narrative.
On the blue line, Riley Stillman and Josh Brown had a solid outing last night, and Damien Carfagna continues to impress. He’s been paired with multiple partners this season and is still managing a 57% goal share at five-on-five. There’s something there.
And then there’s Ike Howard. He’s not just knocking on the door-he’s practically kicking it down.
Whether it’s with the Oilers or another NHL team, he looks ready for the big stage next season. He’s the standout in a deep group of NHL-ready prospects.
The Oilers have some work to do, no doubt. But the foundation is there.
The goaltending is stabilizing, the defense is holding up, and the forward group has options. February might have started with a loss, but the road ahead looks promising.