Pacific Division Still Up for Grabs, But the Oilers Need to Tighten Up
The Pacific Division race has been anything but electric since the calendar flipped to 2026. No team has truly separated itself from the pack, and while that might not scream “elite hockey,” it does mean the door is wide open for any team willing to string together a hot stretch. Right now, Seattle has the best record in the new year, and Anaheim is starting to surge, but the division as a whole feels more like a slow crawl than a sprint.
Let’s start with Edmonton. The Oilers are still very much in the mix, tied with Vegas for the top spot, though the Golden Knights have a game in hand.
That’s the good news. The bad news?
Edmonton is giving up goals at a pace that would make any playoff hopeful nervous.
Vegas just dropped both ends of a weekend back-to-back against Seattle and Anaheim - in regulation - which allowed the Oilers to keep pace in what’s become a bit of a Turtle Derby. If the Pacific leader were dropped into the Atlantic, they’d be sixth.
In the Metro and Central? Fourth.
That’s the kind of season it’s been out west.
Still, with 26 to 28 games left for most teams, a strong two-week run could be all it takes to claim the top seed. But based on recent form, that’s easier said than done.
Seattle’s Rise, Edmonton’s Woes
Seattle has quietly climbed into third place, riding a four-game win streak and sitting just three points behind the co-leaders. They’ve got a game in hand on Vegas and two on Edmonton.
Their offense ranks second in the division, and while they’re middle of the pack defensively (10th in goals against), they’ve found success through structure and goaltending. They may not have the firepower of Edmonton, Vegas or Anaheim, but they’ve been the most consistent team defensively - and that’s kept them in the hunt.
Edmonton, on the other hand, just wrapped up a very winnable January slate with a 5-5-1 record at home. They were better on the road (3-0-1), which salvaged a .500 month overall.
But here’s the real issue: they’ve allowed 25 goals in their last five games. And while they managed to win three of those, that kind of defensive leakage isn’t sustainable.
This isn’t new territory for the Oilers. Scoring has never been the problem. But defending - especially from their top players - continues to be a glaring weakness.
Top Players, Troubling Trends
Let’s break down the recent five-on-five goal differential for some of Edmonton’s key players over the last five games:
- Mattias Ekholm: 8 goals for, 10 against
- Evan Bouchard: 7-10
- Connor McDavid: 5-8
- Leon Draisaitl & Zach Hyman: 4-7
- Jake Walman & Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 2-6
- Jack Roslovic: 3-5
- Darnell Nurse: 2-5
- Vasily Podkolzin & Matthew Savoie: 3-4
- Ty Emberson: 1-3
- Mattias Janmark: 0-3
- Trent Frederic: 0-2
- Curtis Lazar: 0-1
Only a few have managed to stay even or in the black:
- Kasperi Kapanen: 4-1
- Jesse Samanski: 3-1
- Jake Stastney: 2-2
That’s a lot of minus hockey from players who log big minutes. The Oilers’ top-six forwards and top-four defensemen are leaking goals, and that’s a red flag heading into the stretch run.
Jarry Speaks Up, Stats Back Him
After a recent loss to Minnesota, goaltender Tristan Jarry offered a candid take on the team’s defensive struggles.
“I think the chances that we’re giving up, some of the shots, they’re tough,” Jarry said. “It’s a lot of grade A’s, a lot of breakdowns… we just have to tighten up.”
He’s not wrong. In his last four appearances, Jarry has given up 10 goals on 75 shots at five-on-five.
That might not sound great on paper, but he’s still posted a goals saved above expected around +3.5 in that span. Translation: he’s stopping more than he should, even with the defensive chaos in front of him.
This isn’t a goaltending problem alone. Stuart Skinner has had his moments, both good and bad, but the bigger issue is the team’s commitment - or lack thereof - to structured, responsible hockey. The Oilers’ top-end talent can overwhelm teams offensively, but when they start cheating for offense, it opens the floodgates the other way.
The Road Ahead: Opportunity Knocks
Here’s the thing - despite the inconsistency, Edmonton is still in a prime position. They’ve got 13 home games and 13 on the road left, including 13 games against Pacific Division opponents.
That’s more than any other team in the race. They control their own fate.
Here’s how their divisional slate breaks down:
- Vegas: 3 games (2 road, 1 home)
- San Jose: 3 games (2 road, 1 home)
- Anaheim: 2 games (1 road, 1 home)
- Los Angeles: 2 road games
- Seattle: 1 home game
- Vancouver: 1 home game
- Calgary: 1 road game
Vegas, meanwhile, has 11 divisional games left. Seattle and Anaheim each have nine.
L.A. has 12. San Jose has seven.
So if the Oilers can clean things up defensively and take care of business inside the division, they’ve got a clear path to the top.
Final Push: Can the Oilers Flip the Switch?
The last time Edmonton won their division? 1987.
That’s a long drought, and this year, despite the flaws, they’ve got a golden opportunity to end it. It’s all about commitment now - to team defense, to structure, to playing the right way even when it’s not flashy.
They’ve got the talent. They’ve got the schedule. What they need is consistency.
If the Oilers can lock in for this final stretch, they won’t just be playoff-bound - they’ll be playing from a position of strength. But if they keep giving up high-danger looks and leaning too heavily on their goalies to bail them out, it could be another frustrating finish in a season that’s still very much theirs for the taking.