Let’s take a closer look at the Edmonton Oilers' blue line situation, particularly how they’re deploying Darnell Nurse and what that means for their defensive depth heading into the stretch run.
Since arriving full-time in the NHL back in 2015, Nurse has consistently taken on heavy minutes against top-tier opposition. But under head coach Kris Knoblauch, that workload saw a shift last season.
In 2024-25, Nurse logged just 356 five-on-five minutes against elite competition - the lowest total and percentage (25%) he’s posted since the 2016-17 season. That’s a notable change in deployment for a player who’s often been leaned on as the Oilers' top shutdown option.
This season, though, Nurse is back above the 30% mark in terms of minutes against elite players, and while he hasn’t quite matched last year’s career-best performance, he’s still holding his own. His Dangerous Fenwick percentage - a stat that closely mirrors expected goals by weighting shot quality - is solid, though not quite at the 55.8% clip he posted a year ago. Still, a 50%+ DFF against elite competition is respectable, especially when you factor in his relative numbers.
In 2024-25, Nurse posted a +1.3% relative DFF against elites, suggesting he was helping push play in the right direction. This year, that number has leveled off - he’s right around average compared to his fellow defensemen in similar situations. Not ideal, but not alarming either.
Where things get a little murkier is when you look at his performance against middle and lower-tier competition. Nurse’s goal share in those matchups is just 42%.
That’s not what you want from a top-four defenseman, especially when you consider the quality of competition is supposed to be more manageable. It’s fair to point some of the blame his way - you expect a player of his caliber to dominate those minutes.
Now, contrast that with Mattias Ekholm, whose player card is just about everything you’d want from a top-pairing defender. He’s been rock-solid across all levels of competition, and when you’ve got three left-handed defensemen with that kind of profile, you’re setting yourself up for a deep playoff run - assuming everyone stays healthy.
One caveat when evaluating Nurse’s numbers: he hasn’t spent much time with Evan Bouchard this year. Instead, he’s been paired more often with what some might call the “Glimmer Twins,” a duo that hasn’t exactly been known for stabilizing defensive play. That’s worth keeping in mind when assessing his impact.
Let’s pivot to Brett Kulak, who was moved earlier this season after struggling to find his footing. His numbers don’t paint a flattering picture.
Even against soft competition, he only managed a 50% goal share. That’s not terrible, but it doesn’t scream “plug-and-play top-four option,” especially when you dig into his Dangerous Fenwick numbers - which are underwhelming across the board.
Jake Walman is another name in the mix. His DFF numbers against elite and mid-level competition aren’t strong, but he’s been on the ice for 67% of the goals scored against mid-level opponents.
That suggests he’s been getting some puck luck - or at least benefiting from strong goaltending behind him. Either way, the underlying numbers don’t support the idea that he’s a better option than Nurse.
Then there’s Spencer Stastney, the new addition. He’s got nearly 400 minutes under his belt this season, so we’re not talking about a tiny sample size anymore.
He hasn’t been tested much against elite competition, and he’s not playing with the Oilers’ top pairings. His goal share is just 16.7%, despite a 47% DFF.
That’s a tough combination, but it also suggests there’s room for positive regression. Still, if you’re looking for a steady second-pair option on the left side, Nurse remains the better bet - at least for now.
There’s been some chatter around a Nurse-Walman second pairing. In 110 five-on-five minutes together this season, they’ve outscored opponents 8-3.
That looks great on the surface, but dig a little deeper and you’ll see a DFF of just 45% and a sky-high PDO of 109.4 - a clear sign they’ve been riding some unsustainable percentages. That kind of luck doesn’t last forever.
So here’s the real question: if not Nurse on the second pair, who do you trust to take on those minutes? The options behind him haven’t exactly made a compelling case.
The Oilers are in a good spot overall, but how they manage their defensive pairings - particularly on the left side - could go a long way in determining how deep they go in the postseason. For now, Nurse might not be perfect, but he’s still the most reliable option they’ve got in that second-pair slot.