Mike Babcock’s version of the Edmonton Oilers has a clear fingerprint already: get the puck deep, go get it back, and keep the game on the rails.
That approach may be hockey’s oldest cliché, but in Edmonton it has become the defining feature of a 9-2-2 start. The Oilers are dumping pucks in more often than they ever have, and the early returns have been encouraging on the defensive side. The question now is whether this is a real formula for success or just a hot stretch built on a simplified game plan.
The numbers show a noticeable shift in how Edmonton is attacking. The Oilers have long leaned toward carrying the puck into the offensive zone, but this season they’ve moved toward a heavier dump-and-chase identity, which has pushed them to the second-highest dump-in rate in the NHL.
That change isn’t happening by accident. One possible reason is that it cuts down on the kind of offensive-zone turnovers that have hurt Edmonton in the past.
Giving the puck away at the offensive blue line can be brutal, especially when a team isn’t set to defend the other way. Babcock’s structure is clearly designed to reduce that risk.
The source article points to a play from last season against the Calgary Flames as an example. Darnell Nurse carries the puck in, tries to beat a defender, turns it over just inside the offensive blueline, and Calgary turns it into a goal against. That kind of sequence is exactly what Babcock is trying to squeeze out of the Oilers’ game.
So far, the results on that front have been strong. Edmonton has been the best team in the NHL at limiting rush chances against this season.
There’s another layer to the plan, too. A dump-and-chase style can push a team toward more cycle offense, and that’s an area where this Oilers core has often looked dangerous.
When they can wear teams down with sustained pressure, they can be a tough matchup. Babcock made that point in the preseason when he said, “What matters to me is, did we wear out the other team?
Did we play right? Did we come after you?
Were we organized?”
That’s the version of the Oilers they’re trying to build. More disciplined.
Less sloppy. More pressure.
And in a lot of ways, they’ve delivered on that idea.
But the offensive profile comes with a catch. Edmonton has only generated 2.2 expected goals per hour at five-on-five in this system, which would be the lowest rate of any Oilers team in the McDavid era.
They’ve made up for that by shooting 13.3 per cent, which ranks third in the league, but that kind of finishing pace is hard to trust over the long haul. The highest shooting percentage in the cap era is 11.3 per cent, so some regression is coming.
Right now, the top of the lineup is carrying the load. The simplified system has helped the defense, and the stars have supplied the goals.
The issue is what happens when the shooting cools off. If Edmonton wants this to last, the rest of the roster has to do more.
That’s why the concern isn’t really the system itself. It’s whether the bottom nine has enough puck drivers to make it work the way Babcock wants. At the moment, they just aren’t getting the puck enough to fully execute the style.
For now, the Oilers will happily bank the points and keep moving. But the real test comes later, when they can roll multiple lines that create offense and grind opponents down shift after shift. Getting healthy and eventually splitting up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will be their best path to that point.
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What makes the development notable for Edmonton is not just the results, but the way he is getting them. Salonen has shown quick feet and a strong ability to read plays, even as his hand movements continue to develop. For a prospect taken late, that kind of progress can change the conversation quickly, especially when he is earning the crease ahead of a more established option and giving the organization a reason to look closer at its long-term goaltending depth. [Read more 🡒]
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Tomkins is not arriving as a total unknown, either. He has previous NHL experience and only recently signed a two-year, two-way contract with Edmonton, giving the organization a bit of familiarity with him before this opportunity came up. For the Oilers, the immediate question is how the crease holds up in a spot that was not part of the original plan. [Read more 🡒]