Oilers at the Deadline: Cap Crunch, Goalie Questions, and a Narrow Path to Contention
The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a familiar position as the trade deadline approaches - talented, top-heavy, and tight against the cap. After years of swinging big in free agency and at past deadlines, general manager Stan Bowman is staring down a roster with clear needs but limited flexibility to fix them.
Let’s break it down: goaltending remains a question mark, the blue line is still searching for stability, and the forward group could use one more piece - especially down the middle. But with cap space scarce and trade chips few, Bowman will have to get creative if Edmonton hopes to make a deep playoff run.
The Goalie Situation: Jarry vs. Ingram
When the Oilers brought in Tristan Jarry, the hope was that he’d stabilize the crease. So far, that bet hasn’t paid off in a big way.
His five-on-five save percentage (.895) is only marginally better than Stuart Skinner’s (.892), who was shipped out in the deal. That’s not the kind of upgrade you mortgage assets for.
Enter Connor Ingram. Quietly, he’s posted the best five-on-five save percentage (.899) among the team’s netminders this season and is the only one meeting the league average overall (.896). That might not sound like much, but in a league where average goaltending can still win you playoff rounds - especially with the firepower Edmonton has - it’s worth noting.
Right now, the smart play is to let Jarry and Ingram split the net and see who rises. It’s not ideal, but it’s the reality.
Top-tier goalies aren’t moving at this deadline, and the Oilers have already spent to get what they have. Ingram might not have the pedigree, but he’s earned a real shot at the job - especially if Jarry continues to tread water.
Sure, a name like Jesper Wallstedt would be a dream get, but the Wild’s asking price is steep, and Edmonton doesn’t have the assets to make that kind of splash. For now, this is the tandem. The Oilers just have to hope one of them gets hot at the right time.
Defensive Depth: Trending Up, But Still Thin
Bowman made an early-season move to shake up the blue line, sending Brett Kulak to Pittsburgh in the Jarry deal and bringing in Spencer Stastney from Nashville. Since then, the numbers have improved - at least slightly.
Goals against at five-on-five have dipped from 2.84 to 2.71 per 60 minutes, and the team’s save percentage has climbed from .884 to .897. Not a revolution, but progress.
Interestingly, Calvin Pickard played a big role in that uptick before being waived. Now, with Jarry and Ingram in the mix, the Oilers will need to see if the trend holds.
But there’s a catch: while the goals against have improved, the team is giving up more high-danger chances - 12.34 per 60 minutes, up from 10.81 before the trades. That suggests the blue line is still a work in progress, and the goaltenders are being asked to do more.
If Edmonton wants to shore up the back end, the ideal target is a right-shot defenseman who can play second-pair minutes alongside Darnell Nurse or Jake Walman. Dougie Hamilton would be a dream fit, but with a $9 million cap hit, there’s simply no path to making that work.
The Oilers might need to ride with what they’ve got and reassess in the offseason. Unless a cap-friendly option emerges, the blue line might not get the reinforcement it needs.
Forward Fix: One Nugent-Hopkins, Two Roles
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins continues to be one of the most versatile pieces in the Oilers’ lineup - and that’s part of the problem. He’s a strong two-way presence on the top line at left wing, but his offensive instincts also make him a great fit as a third-line center. Unfortunately, there’s only one of him.
Right now, Jack Roslovic is holding down the 3C spot, but he’s better suited on the wing. If Bowman can find a true third-line center, it would allow the Oilers to roll three balanced lines and take some pressure off the top six.
One name that checks a lot of boxes? Ryan O’Reilly.
The Predators veteran carries a manageable $4.5 million cap hit and brings playoff pedigree, faceoff prowess, and the ability to handle tough matchups. According to Puck IQ, he’s facing elite competition in 45% of his minutes - and holding his own.
That’s exactly the kind of player you want anchoring your bottom six in the postseason.
Shane Wright is another name floating around, but that’s a different kind of move - one for the future, not the now. He’s still raw, not a reliable faceoff guy, and would cost a young forward with upside. For a team chasing a Cup, that’s a risky bet.
Warren Foegele, now a healthy scratch in L.A., could be a depth option if Edmonton wants to bring back a familiar face, but he doesn’t move the needle like O’Reilly would.
Cap Math and the Path Ahead
Here’s where things get tricky. The Oilers have roughly $2.9 million in deadline cap space, per PuckPedia, but that number is fluid.
Adam Henrique is on his way back from LTIR, and Andrew Mangiapane is rumored to be on the trade block. If Mangiapane ($3.6 million cap hit) is moved, it gives Bowman more room to maneuver - but it also creates another hole to fill.
That’s the dilemma. The Oilers don’t have the space or the assets to chase top-tier names.
They’re likely locked into their goaltending tandem. The blue line is thin but hard to fix.
And the forward group needs one more piece, but only if the price is right.
O’Reilly is the kind of move that makes sense: affordable, effective, and realistic. Wallstedt and Zub? Those are pipe dreams right now.
The Youth Movement: Time to Trust the Kids?
There’s another path forward - one the Oilers haven’t walked much in recent years. But it might be time.
Back in 2006, Edmonton leaned on rookies like Matt Greene and Brad Winchester during a run to the Stanley Cup Final. This year, they’ve got a few promising names in the pipeline who could help now.
Matt Savoie is already seeing NHL minutes on the third line. Ike Howard is tearing it up in the AHL with Bakersfield.
Connor Ungar is dominating in net, while Quinn Hutson and Roby Jarventie are knocking on the door. Josh Samanski just had a solid five-game audition.
If Bowman opts to stand pat and give these young players a shot - rather than chasing marginal upgrades and further straining the cap - it could pay dividends. It would also give the Oilers something they haven’t had in a long time: breathing room under the cap heading into the offseason.
That kind of flexibility could be the key to finally building a roster that can support Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl deep into the playoffs - not just this year, but for years to come.
Final Word
The Oilers are walking a tightrope. The core is in its prime, the window is open, and the pressure is on. But the cap is tight, the assets are limited, and the market isn’t overflowing with perfect fits.
Stan Bowman doesn’t need to swing for the fences. He just needs to make the right move - or maybe, make no move at all and trust the youth.
Either way, this deadline could define the McDavid era.