The Oilers may be getting a rare break from two of the NHL’s loudest new headaches.
Edmonton Journal columnist David Staples argues that the league’s recent churn is hitting other teams harder than it is hitting the Oilers, and the reasons are pretty straightforward: Edmonton doesn’t have the same roster pressure from U.S.-born players wanting out, and it isn’t facing the kind of restricted free agent bills that are suddenly ballooning across the league.
One of the biggest themes this summer has been players pushing for moves out of Canadian markets. Staples points to Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Larkin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Zach Werenski as examples, though Werenski ultimately pivoted back.
In some cases, the pull isn’t just about leaving Canada. Players are also looking at U.S. states with friendlier tax setups, including Texas, Nevada, and Florida.
That’s where Alberta gives Edmonton an edge. Staples notes that the province has the lowest provincial tax rate in Canada and no provincial sales tax, which leaves the Oilers in a better spot than teams such as Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa.
The other major shift is the price tag attached to young restricted free agents. Staples says second contracts are getting big fast, with Leo Carlsson, Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Zeev Buium and, soon enough, Cutter Gauthier all part of that wave. Philadelphia’s offer sheet for Leo Carlsson helped push that market along, and Buium’s new deal with Vancouver - 8.2 percent of the cap despite modest production - is another sign that the ground has moved for rebuilding clubs.
Edmonton, though, is not a rebuilding team, and that matters. The Oilers aren’t stockpiling high-end RFAs, so this part of the league-wide squeeze mostly passes them by as well.
Staples also touches on the broader blue states versus red states discussion, though that’s a conversation he doesn’t want to wade into too deeply. His point is that some players have social and political beliefs that fit certain places better than others, and that can influence where they want to play.
For Edmonton, the impact appears limited. The team’s only U.S.-born players are Trent Frederic, Connor Murphy, Ryan Shea, Spencer Statsney, Ty Emberson, and Isaac Howard. Staples’ view is that none of them are stars whose departure would fundamentally change the Oilers’ structure or move the market in any major way.
The same goes for the Oilers’ own RFA concerns. The names on that list are Matt Savoie, Josh Samanski, and Devon Levi. Staples sees three players with upside, and maybe even the chance to earn more if they have strong seasons, but none are in line to cash in anywhere near the level of the players driving this offseason’s biggest contracts.
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