Fraser Minten’s new contract in Boston is more than just another young-player payday. It’s a signal, and for the Oilers it should land like a warning shot.
Minten has signed a seven-year deal with the Bruins worth $7.2 million AAV, joining a growing wave of NHL teams making long-term, high-dollar bets on players who haven’t fully broken out yet. Zeev Buium is right there too, after landing an eight-year deal at $9.38 million AAV. The common thread is clear: clubs are paying for upside early and daring themselves to be right.
That trend matters in Edmonton because Matt Savoie is in the exact kind of spot that can turn into a negotiation trap.
Savoie is eligible for a long-term extension, and the Oilers have been quiet. Maybe too quiet.
The longer they sit on it, the more the market keeps moving. Every new deal for a young player with projection only pushes Savoie’s price higher.
Minten is one of the closest comparisons for where this can go. Both players are 22.
Both were drafted in 2022 - Savoie ninth overall, Minten 38th. Both just completed their first full NHL season, and both played all 82 games.
Minten’s season came with a different path, too. He was already moved once, as part of the Brandon Carlo deal, and then turned in a strong year for Boston.
He also averaged nearly a minute more per game and played center, which adds value. Still, Savoie has his own selling point: he’s expected to skate beside the best player on earth this season, and after the Olympic break he flashed what he can do on McDavid’s wing.
That kind of deployment changes the conversation. Teams don’t just pay for what a player has done; they pay for what they think he can become in a premium role.
Not long ago, Edmonton may have been able to get Savoie locked up in the $5-6 million AAV range on a long-term contract. That door has likely closed. With Minten and Buium setting new numbers, Savoie’s side can point to those deals and argue from a much stronger position.
The expectation now is that his camp will be asking for $7 million AAV or more.
There is, of course, a reason the Oilers may be willing to wait. Savoie suffered an offseason training injury, which means he’ll miss the start of the season. If he’s slow to get going because he didn’t get a full summer of reps, Edmonton could try to use that to keep the number down.
But that’s a risky play for a team that needs cost control wherever it can find it.
If Savoie takes off, the bill climbs fast. He looked on the verge of a breakout after the Olympic break, and a 60-plus-point season would push him straight into the $8-10 million AAV range as the market keeps inflating around him. Go beyond that, and Edmonton is staring at a brutal negotiating position.
The Oilers have been down this road before, missing the chance to secure young players early and then paying a premium later. Right now, it looks uncomfortably familiar with Savoie.
Waiting might save them nothing. It could cost them millions.
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McDavid Rumor Revives The Oilers Question Fans Can't Ignore
The latest round of Connor McDavid chatter has been more rumor than revelation, but it still managed to stir up a familiar nerve for Oilers fans. Michael Augello of The Hockey News clarified that his comments about McDavid one day playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs were rooted in another reporters theory and were meant to apply only if Toronto were a legitimate contender, which is the kind of caveat that can easily get lost once speculation starts to spread.
For Edmonton, the important part is the present tense: McDavid remains committed to the Oilers, and nothing in the discussion amounts to confirmed news. Still, the conversation only underscores how any future decision would be shaped by more than one factor, from team performance to the possibilities that could emerge if free agency ever becomes part of the picture, with Toronto hardly the only destination that would have a say. [Read more 🡒]