The Oilers’ reported interest in Kirby Dach is the kind of rumor that can sound appealing until you actually start lining up the evidence. The Montreal Canadiens centre has the size, the skating and the right-handed shot Edmonton lacks down the middle, but the fit comes with a long list of red flags.
NHL insider Frank Seravalli said over the weekend that Edmonton’s interest in Dach “borders on drooling,” adding that the Oilers are intent on getting him “at some point, whether that’s before the season starts, at the March 1 trade deadline, or next summer as a free agent.”
On paper, it’s easy to see why Dach would catch their eye. He’s a 6-foot-4 centre with a strong stride and usable hands, and the Oilers currently have only one right-shot centre on the roster in Owen Michaels, who impressed in training camp but does not have NHL experience.
The problem is that Dach’s profile has been worn down by injuries. When the Chicago Blackhawks took him third overall in the 2019 Draft, he looked like a future star after producing more than a point per game for the Saskatoon Blades and posting 23 points in 64 NHL games as an 18-year-old. Since then, the body blows have piled up.
He fractured his wrist in a Team Canada World Junior pre-tournament game in late 2020, needed surgery, and missed 34 games. In October 2023, Jarred Tinordi checked him into the Chicago bench and Dach tore both his ACL and MCL, ending his 2023-24 season.
Nearly a year and a half later, he tore the same ACL and had surgery again, which ended his season. Last year, he also missed another 31 games with a fractured foot.
At 25, Dach has already gone through multiple knee surgeries and multiple fractures, and in seven NHL seasons he has only reached the 60-game mark twice. Banking on him to stay available for most of a season would be a gamble.
The production has slipped too. After the Blackhawks moved him to Montreal, Dach had a solid first season with the Canadiens, putting up 14 goals and 24 assists for 38 points in 58 games in 2022-23. HockeyStats’ WAR model had him in the 63rd percentile offensively and the 76th percentile defensively at even strength that year, which pointed to a player trending toward being an above-average second-line centre.
Then the injuries hit, and the numbers went the wrong way. Even while being pushed into a bottom-six role last season, Dach’s offensive WAR fell to the 37th percentile at even strength, and his defensive WAR dropped to the 16th percentile. All Three Zones also shows his individual offensive impact has faded sharply, with his shot assists, chance assists and high-danger assists no longer anywhere near the league’s top tier.
There is also the question of how engaged he is on a nightly basis. Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis said, “It’s about being alert and continuing to play the whole game,” and added, “It’s not just one thing, it’s staying alert and working hard.”
That is not the kind of line that screams certainty. For a team like Edmonton, whose system appears to demand pressure, details and hard work, it raises a fair question about whether Dach is the right player to chase.
His size and tools still make him intriguing, but the Oilers have to be careful not to fall in love with what he looks like more than what he’s actually giving them now. His cap hit is $3.6 million, his play-driving has faded, and his health track record is too shaky to ignore.
If Edmonton is truly “drooling” over Dach, it should take a hard look at the cost. With precious few trade assets to spend and injury risk already attached to players they’ve committed to, the Oilers do not need to burn more on another volatile bet.
Dach might make sense as a cheap flyer for a rebuilding team with cap space. For Edmonton, he looks like too much risk.
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