The numbers around the Oilers and Wild point in very different directions, but they also tell a pretty interesting story about how each team is getting there.
Edmonton’s five-on-five goal differential sits at 64 percent, while Minnesota’s is at 53 percent. The way they arrive at those marks is where things get messy.
The Oilers are producing 3.86 goals-60 at five-on-five, a huge edge over the Wild’s 2.23. Minnesota, though, is built to survive in a tight environment, allowing just 1.95 goals-60.
That’s what makes Edmonton’s start under Mike Babcock stand out. The Oilers’ five-on-five goals-against rate this season is 2.16, a major drop from last year’s 2.76.
That’s a big change from the familiar Edmonton script, and the source material calls for a new line to replace the old “same as it ever was” refrain: “what the hell is going on out there?” until Game 20.
There’s also a lineup wrinkle to watch with Hyman back in the mix. The source had this one as a loss before the season even started, but the return of Hyman opens up some choices for the coach. That leaves the final days of October as a little bit of an experiment, and Edmonton is already testing combinations.
Hyman-Dach-Kapanen is one of them. It’s a new trio that has only been on the ice together for 13 minutes.
They haven’t scored yet, but they have controlled 62 percent of the expected goals in those minutes. Babcock is keeping Dach at center, and the source leans into that decision because it gives a young player more of a chance to grow.
The idea is familiar: plenty of these bets don’t work out, but until the team gets its actual centers healthy, it’s worth watching.
Formenton-Michaels-Joseph has been on the ice together longer, 66 minutes at five-on-five, and the results are more mixed. The line has a 44 percent goal share, which is not ideal, but it has also posted 3.6 goals-60, which jumps off the page.
The expected share sits at 35 percent, so the sense is that Edmonton’s analytics group may already be circling this unit for a change once Nuge returns. Since Alex Formenton is the only true burner there, the source suggests another right winger could be the one to replace Joseph.
Then there’s Hallander-Frederic-Howard, a line that has only logged eight minutes and given up a goal. Howard, at the 98th percentile, and Frederic, at the 89th, are bringing the speed, and Hallander is still the piece to evaluate. With Nuge coming back, the expectation is that someone from this group could end up on the outside looking in.
The day also includes The Lowdown, where Shawn Belle is the featured guest. The conversation will touch on the strong return for Jake Walman and the challenge of performing while not fully healthy.
The show also includes a round table with three Greyhounds - Declan Krueger, Josh Fenwick, and Donovan Paulson - taking on the basset hound, the source’s own description for himself. It runs from noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
In Other News...
Oilers Keep Finding Big Moments And Fans Have Another Reason To Believe
The Oilers keep piling up the kind of nights that make a long season feel a little lighter, and this one came with another dramatic finish. Edmonton outlasted the Minnesota Wild 4-3 in overtime, with the special teams again doing a lot of the heavy lifting as the club went 3-for-5 on the power play and a perfect 3-for-3 on the penalty kill.
Connor McDavid was once again at the center of it all with three assists, keeping the offense humming while the Oilers found yet another way to get a result. The team has built a habit of delivering in big moments lately, and this latest win added another layer to the growing sense that Edmonton is finding its stride when the pressure rises. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Are Winning In A Way Fans Arent Used To
The Oilers early standing has been built in a way that feels a little different from the usual script in Edmonton. They are sitting near the top of the NHL table despite having played fewer games than some of the teams around them, and the numbers behind the start point to something more subtle than a one-man surge. A look at the advanced stats shows that few Oilers are near the top of the league in the usual individual categories, which suggests the early success has come more from system execution and efficient finishing than from one gaudy leaderboard presence.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still driving the conversation, of course, but the bigger story may be how the group has responded to the standards being set under new head coach Mike Babcock. For a fan base that has spent years waiting for the team to look organized and dangerous at the same time, this opening stretch has offered a version of the Oilers that is winning with structure as much as star power, even if the full test of that approach is still to come. [Read more 🡒]
Nugent-Hopkins Return Creates A Big Oilers Top-Six Decision
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is finally set to rejoin the lineup, giving Edmonton its first real top-six shuffle of the season after he missed the opening stretch with an undisclosed injury. Mike Babcock confirmed the veteran forward will make his season debut against the Carolina Hurricanes, and the timing matters for a team that has already had to patch together its forward combinations without one of its most dependable playmakers.
The biggest question now is where Nugent-Hopkins fits once the puck drops. Edmonton is expected to use him in a prominent second-line role, and the ripple effect could be felt throughout the forward group as the staff sorts out the best mix around him. With the Oilers trying to settle into a rhythm early, his return adds needed stability, but it also forces a lineup decision that could reshape the balance of the entire top six. [Read more 🡒]